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Maize flour in Muhanga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,837–2,590

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,683–2,703

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 22% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,837 and 2,590 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,683 and 2,703 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Muhanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 22% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,837 and 2,590 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,683 and 2,703 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,207); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,818–2,149 1,953 1,714–2,588 2,247 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,789–2,356 2,007 1,651–2,798 2,331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,837–2,590 2,092 1,702–3,791 2,573 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,800–2,812 2,121 1,644–5,207 2,567 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,683–2,703 2,004 1,462–4,191 2,331 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20261,625
May 20261,646
Apr 20261,800
Mar 20261,825
Feb 20262,149
Jan 20262,100
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20251,908
Oct 20251,961
Sept 20252,031
Aug 20251,900
Jul 20251,795
Jun 20251,575
May 20251,433
Apr 20251,447
Mar 20251,468
Feb 20251,824
Jan 20252,304
Dec 20242,564
Nov 20242,238
Oct 20242,333
Sept 20242,033
Aug 20241,826
Jul 20241,550
Jun 20241,489
May 20241,396
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,579
Feb 20241,574
Jan 20241,850
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,038
Sept 20232,022
Aug 20232,035
Jul 20231,868
Jun 20231,806
May 20231,817
Apr 20231,700
Mar 20231,975
Feb 20231,833
Dec 20221,909
Nov 20222,347
Oct 20221,761
Sept 20221,596
Aug 20221,425
Jul 20221,200
May 20221,159
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022950
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,167
May 2021933
Apr 2021856
Mar 2021850
Feb 2021950
Jan 20211,100
Dec 20201,133
Nov 20201,075
Sept 2020933
Aug 2020934
Jul 2020945
Jun 2020839
Mar 2020800
Feb 2020825
Jan 20201,067
Dec 20191,320
Oct 2019920
Aug 2019750
Jul 2019933
Jun 2019633
May 2019600
Mar 2019583
Feb 2019767
Jan 2019783
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018675
Sept 2018683
Aug 2018700
Jul 2018660
Jun 2018642
May 2018633
Apr 2018578
Mar 2018550
Feb 2018933
Jan 20181,017
Dec 20171,100
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,283
Sept 20171,262
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,233
Apr 20171,100
Mar 20171,100
Feb 20171,100
Jan 20171,244
Dec 20161,275
Nov 20161,207
Oct 20161,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2449-76-retail-kg.