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Oil (vegetable) in Muhanga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

15,058–20,884

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,607–22,031

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,058 and 20,884 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,607 and 22,031 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Muhanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,058 and 20,884 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,607 and 22,031 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,482); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,039–18,927 16,755 13,879–20,896 18,080 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 15,383–19,986 17,043 14,228–24,632 19,404 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 15,058–20,884 16,911 14,384–26,361 18,435 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,708–21,542 16,904 13,654–28,428 18,573 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,607–22,031 16,725 12,969–29,482 19,735 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,000
Jun 202617,000
May 202617,625
Apr 202617,000
Mar 202617,000
Feb 202615,795
Jan 202618,000
Dec 202518,000
Nov 202517,479
Oct 202517,804
Sept 202515,083
Aug 202518,000
Jul 202516,769
Jun 202514,167
May 202518,556
Apr 202516,588
Mar 202516,992
Feb 202514,667
Jan 202514,833
Dec 202413,746
Nov 202414,425
Oct 202412,833
Sept 202413,000
Aug 202413,259
Jul 202412,125
Jun 202410,222
May 202410,192
Apr 202410,000
Mar 20249,794
Feb 20249,248
Jan 20248,833
Dec 20239,825
Nov 20239,104
Oct 20238,332
Sept 20239,594
Aug 202310,650
Jul 20239,724
Jun 20238,903
May 20238,967
Apr 20239,442
Mar 20238,900
Feb 20238,925
Dec 20228,627
Nov 20228,967
Oct 202210,167
Sept 20228,742
Aug 20228,350
Jul 20229,550
May 20228,398
Apr 20228,215
Mar 20228,000
Feb 20228,000
Jan 20228,000
Oct 20217,900
May 20215,400
Apr 20214,817
Mar 20215,150
Feb 20214,600
Jan 20214,350
Dec 20204,667
Nov 20204,583
Sept 20204,550
Aug 20204,438
Jul 20204,682
Jun 20204,589
Mar 20204,140
Feb 20204,125
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,200
Nov 20193,960
Oct 20194,083
Sept 20194,117
Aug 20194,350
Jul 20194,333
Jun 20194,000
May 20194,100
Mar 20194,000
Feb 20194,583
Jan 20194,000
Dec 20184,117
Nov 20184,300
Oct 20184,483
Sept 20184,550
Aug 20184,467
Jul 20184,480
Jun 20184,650
May 20184,650
Apr 20184,633
Mar 20184,000
Feb 20184,467
Jan 20185,417

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2449-96-retail-kg.