Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Food basket in Muhanga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,000–40,670

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,342–45,821

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,490 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,000 and 40,670 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,342 and 45,821 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Muhanga: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,490 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,000 and 40,670 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,342 and 45,821 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 80,780); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,283–34,320 30,375 24,249–38,201
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 25,073–35,811 30,124 22,979–44,370
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,000–40,670 30,348 22,872–54,210
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 24,631–41,502 30,025 22,677–70,561
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,342–45,821 30,850 22,174–80,780
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202632,490
Jun 202628,838
May 202629,715
Apr 202633,300
Mar 202633,847
Feb 202629,830
Jan 202624,840
Dec 202521,660
Nov 202525,015
Oct 202524,042
Sept 202524,885
Aug 202531,220
Jul 202530,158
Jun 202532,079
May 202526,373
Apr 202525,835
Mar 202526,197
Feb 202525,382
Jan 202524,462
Dec 202428,209
Nov 202428,054
Oct 202428,570
Sept 202423,910
Aug 202426,777
Jul 202427,851
Jun 202424,868
May 202428,283
Apr 202428,808
Mar 202429,942
Feb 202430,090
Jan 202431,114
Dec 202329,486
Nov 202327,244
Oct 202330,202
Sept 202330,963
Aug 202329,954
Jul 202330,780
Jun 202330,696
May 202332,531
Apr 202332,840
Mar 202329,325
Feb 202327,703
Dec 202221,790
Nov 202221,694
Oct 202218,351
Sept 202216,893
Aug 202218,980
Jul 202219,058
May 202218,338
Apr 202217,433
Mar 202215,230
Feb 202214,630
Jan 202216,270
Oct 202114,188
May 202115,678
Apr 202114,936
Mar 202114,590
Feb 202114,708
Jan 202115,047
Dec 202014,399
Nov 202014,158
Sept 202012,859
Aug 202012,180
Jul 202012,232
Jun 202011,822
Mar 202011,182
Feb 202010,710
Jan 20209,544
Dec 201910,450
Oct 20199,125
Aug 20199,139
Jul 20199,082
Jun 20199,946
May 20199,772
Mar 20199,800
Feb 20199,252
Jan 20199,184
Dec 20189,493
Nov 20189,140
Oct 20188,584
Sept 20189,463
Aug 20189,810
Jul 201810,543
Jun 201810,940
May 201811,373
Apr 201811,717
Mar 201812,918
Feb 201813,240
Jan 201814,218

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620