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Oil (palm) in Muramvya

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,435–10,164

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,296–10,648

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,435 and 10,164 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,296 and 10,648 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Muramvya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,435 and 10,164 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,296 and 10,648 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,827–9,964 8,784 7,278–10,123 10,231 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,180–9,736 8,454 6,896–9,871 9,308 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,435–10,164 8,670 6,659–11,863 9,265 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,417–10,378 8,743 6,513–11,692 9,559 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,296–10,648 9,151 6,639–10,806 10,367 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,667
Jul 202610,000
Jun 20268,478
May 20269,889
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20269,769
Feb 20269,100
Jan 20269,000
Dec 20259,500
Nov 20259,278
Oct 202511,222
Sept 202511,391
Aug 202511,206
Jul 202511,137
Jun 202511,602
May 202510,959
Apr 202510,668
Mar 202510,804
Feb 20258,651
Jan 20257,611
Dec 20246,221
Nov 20245,769
Oct 20245,944
Sept 20246,000
Aug 20246,000
Jul 20246,200
Jun 20246,100
May 20246,250
Apr 20245,975
Mar 20245,600
Feb 20245,558
Jan 20246,400
Dec 20235,850
Nov 20235,433
Oct 20234,691
Sept 20236,298
Aug 20236,113
Jul 20235,692
Jun 20235,600
May 20235,703
Apr 20235,248
Mar 20234,715
Feb 20234,639
Dec 20224,450
Nov 20224,550
Oct 20224,035
Sept 20224,878
Aug 20225,206
Jun 20224,900
May 20224,944
Apr 20224,250
Mar 20223,833
Feb 20223,800
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20213,550
May 20212,700
Apr 20212,554
Mar 20212,800
Feb 20212,567
Jan 20212,700
Dec 20202,425
Nov 20202,517
Sept 20202,420
Aug 20202,685
Jul 20202,708
Jun 20202,631
Mar 20202,543
Feb 20202,600
Jan 20202,567
Dec 20192,480
Nov 20192,267
Oct 20192,180
Sept 20192,517
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20192,633
May 20192,833
Mar 20192,367
Feb 20192,600
Jan 20192,367
Dec 20182,233
Nov 20182,200
Oct 20182,120
Sept 20182,600
Aug 20183,433
Jul 20183,200
Jun 20183,180
May 20183,080
Apr 20182,733
Mar 20182,475
Feb 20182,333
Jan 20182,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2451-62-retail-kg.