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Maize (white) in Muramvya

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,496–2,120

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,433–2,318

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,496 and 2,120 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,433 and 2,318 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Muramvya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,496 and 2,120 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,433 and 2,318 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,772); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,454–1,853 1,646 1,325–2,143 2,132 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,460–1,957 1,694 1,295–2,208 2,177 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,496–2,120 1,749 1,322–2,721 2,379 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,488–2,219 1,779 1,262–2,946 2,444 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,433–2,318 1,701 1,194–3,772 2,243 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,633
Jul 20261,400
Jun 20261,461
May 20261,389
Apr 20261,067
Mar 20261,266
Feb 20261,645
Jan 20261,825
Dec 20251,750
Nov 20251,678
Oct 20251,625
Sept 20251,693
Aug 20251,612
Jul 20251,608
Jun 20251,519
May 20251,118
Apr 20251,378
Mar 20251,565
Feb 20252,287
Jan 20252,256
Dec 20242,710
Nov 20242,353
Oct 20242,172
Sept 20242,000
Aug 20241,731
Jul 20241,500
Jun 20241,225
May 20241,200
Apr 20241,350
Mar 20241,467
Feb 20241,509
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,957
Sept 20231,990
Aug 20231,733
Jul 20231,717
Jun 20231,464
May 20231,688
Apr 20231,508
Mar 20231,650
Feb 20231,591
Dec 20222,200
Nov 20221,900
Oct 20221,788
Sept 20221,647
Aug 20221,482
Jun 20221,050
May 2022876
Apr 2022900
Mar 2022867
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,150
Oct 20211,100
May 2021690
Apr 2021710
Mar 2021700
Feb 2021950
Jan 20211,000
Dec 20201,000
Nov 20201,117
Sept 2020852
Aug 2020870
Jul 2020800
Jun 2020711
Mar 2020671
Feb 2020717
Dec 20191,100
Oct 2019850
Aug 2019700
Jul 2019830
Jun 2019600
May 2019533
Mar 2019517
Feb 2019642
Jan 2019775
Dec 2018700
Nov 2018758
Oct 2018630
Sept 2018608
Aug 2018600
Jul 2018600
Jun 2018620
May 2018590
Apr 2018517
Mar 2018662
Feb 2018717
Jan 2018800
Dec 2017983
Nov 2017950
Oct 20171,175
Sept 20171,200
Aug 2017800
Jul 20171,186
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,067
Apr 20171,000
Mar 2017900
Jan 20171,225
Dec 20161,200
Nov 20161,057
Oct 2016867

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2451-67-retail-kg.