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Cassava flour in Muramvya

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,322–2,048

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,268–2,186

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 23% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,322 and 2,048 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,268 and 2,186 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Muramvya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 23% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,322 and 2,048 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,268 and 2,186 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,816); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,352–1,685 1,521 1,222–1,821 1,699 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,334–1,848 1,555 1,117–1,983 1,769 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,322–2,048 1,530 1,074–2,877 1,899 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,289–2,217 1,510 1,065–3,816 1,772 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,268–2,186 1,544 1,043–3,221 1,709 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,433
Jul 20261,600
Jun 20261,646
May 20261,872
Apr 20261,433
Mar 20261,475
Feb 20261,482
Jan 20261,625
Dec 20251,400
Nov 20251,411
Oct 20251,519
Sept 20251,576
Aug 20251,609
Jul 20251,645
Jun 20251,655
May 20251,569
Apr 20251,552
Mar 20251,554
Feb 20251,360
Jan 20251,378
Dec 20241,508
Nov 20241,606
Oct 20241,556
Sept 20241,450
Aug 20241,315
Jul 20241,450
Jun 20241,525
May 20241,550
Apr 20241,825
Mar 20241,779
Feb 20241,885
Jan 20241,900
Dec 20231,850
Nov 20231,788
Oct 20231,726
Sept 20231,678
Aug 20231,828
Jul 20231,791
Jun 20231,873
May 20232,000
Apr 20232,032
Mar 20231,987
Feb 20231,574
Dec 20221,350
Nov 20221,350
Oct 20221,222
Sept 20221,147
Aug 20221,138
Jun 20221,000
May 20221,044
Apr 20221,050
Mar 20221,067
Feb 20221,050
Jan 20221,100
Oct 20211,050
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021875
Feb 2021917
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020800
Nov 2020767
Sept 2020665
Aug 2020720
Jul 2020708
Jun 2020728
Mar 2020707
Feb 2020667
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019580
Oct 2019470
Aug 2019442
Jul 2019517
Jun 2019600
May 2019583
Mar 2019517
Feb 2019543
Jan 2019517
Dec 2018508
Nov 2018533
Oct 2018520
Sept 2018536
Aug 2018550
Jul 2018667
Jun 2018780
May 2018860
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018825
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018725
Dec 20171,067
Nov 20171,250
Oct 20171,225
Sept 20171,050
Aug 2017800
Jul 20171,243
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,233
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,000
Feb 2017770
Jan 2017917
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016919
Oct 2016917

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2451-74-retail-kg.