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Oil (vegetable) in Muramvya

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,807–21,147

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,560–22,403

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,807 and 21,147 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,560 and 22,403 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Muramvya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,807 and 21,147 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,560 and 22,403 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 30,898); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,029–19,233 16,787 14,489–21,138 17,586 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,453–19,822 16,628 13,419–27,293 18,219 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,807–21,147 16,553 12,670–26,827 17,729 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,591–21,623 16,585 13,322–30,898 17,495 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,560–22,403 16,682 13,072–29,764 18,633 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,333
Jul 202617,000
Jun 202617,457
May 202616,833
Apr 202617,333
Mar 202615,200
Feb 202615,725
Jan 202614,500
Dec 202517,000
Nov 202515,000
Oct 202517,611
Sept 202517,696
Aug 202517,971
Jul 202518,451
Jun 202517,740
May 202517,051
Apr 202517,050
Mar 202517,441
Feb 202516,254
Jan 202514,000
Dec 202414,144
Nov 202413,729
Oct 202412,880
Sept 202414,000
Aug 202414,000
Jul 202414,000
Jun 20249,750
May 202410,500
Apr 202411,500
Mar 202411,485
Feb 202410,409
Jan 202412,000
Dec 20239,000
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,328
Sept 20239,362
Aug 20239,679
Jul 20239,656
Jun 20239,273
May 20238,618
Apr 20239,125
Mar 20239,065
Feb 20238,978
Dec 20228,000
Nov 202210,500
Oct 20229,261
Sept 20228,984
Aug 20229,176
Jun 20227,750
May 20227,971
Apr 20228,000
Mar 20228,000
Feb 20227,000
Jan 20227,500
Oct 202110,000
May 20217,000
Apr 20216,417
Mar 20217,000
Feb 20216,833
Jan 20216,000
Dec 20205,500
Nov 20205,550
Sept 20205,175
Aug 20205,400
Jul 20205,250
Jun 20205,806
Mar 20205,429
Feb 20205,333
Jan 20205,333
Dec 20195,500
Nov 20195,167
Oct 20195,200
Sept 20195,250
Aug 20195,000
Jul 20194,800
Jun 20195,500
May 20195,417
Mar 20195,167
Feb 20194,714
Jan 20195,250
Dec 20185,583
Nov 20185,750
Oct 20184,500
Sept 20185,357
Aug 20185,083
Jul 20185,167
Jun 20185,200
May 20185,600
Apr 20185,333
Mar 20185,500
Feb 20185,500
Jan 20185,250

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2451-96-retail-kg.