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Food basket in Muramvya

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,874–37,587

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,184–41,043

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,400 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,874 and 37,587 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,184 and 41,043 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Muramvya: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,400 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,874 and 37,587 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,184 and 41,043 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 58,939); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 27,449–32,501 29,947 25,730–34,670
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,965–34,424 30,363 24,639–37,100
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,874–37,587 30,740 24,900–46,574
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,556–40,849 30,506 24,340–58,939
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,184–41,043 30,904 23,541–53,027
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202628,400
Jul 202631,500
Jun 202630,423
May 202637,220
Apr 202629,710
Mar 202629,935
Feb 202628,772
Jan 202629,805
Dec 202527,855
Nov 202527,915
Oct 202531,017
Sept 202531,621
Aug 202531,665
Jul 202531,845
Jun 202532,276
May 202530,832
Apr 202531,769
Mar 202531,959
Feb 202528,198
Jan 202528,175
Dec 202429,319
Nov 202429,098
Oct 202428,656
Sept 202426,220
Aug 202424,653
Jul 202425,773
Jun 202426,154
May 202427,862
Apr 202431,693
Mar 202430,652
Feb 202431,340
Jan 202433,426
Dec 202331,096
Nov 202330,284
Oct 202329,108
Sept 202329,403
Aug 202331,030
Jul 202329,401
Jun 202329,511
May 202333,774
Apr 202334,421
Mar 202333,503
Feb 202327,374
Dec 202223,230
Nov 202223,030
Oct 202220,419
Sept 202219,705
Aug 202219,586
Jun 202218,441
May 202219,133
Apr 202218,322
Mar 202217,665
Feb 202217,562
Jan 202217,934
Oct 202117,660
May 202116,653
Apr 202116,500
Mar 202115,447
Feb 202115,831
Jan 202115,273
Dec 202014,153
Nov 202013,907
Sept 202012,228
Aug 202012,572
Jul 202012,490
Jun 202012,828
Mar 202012,709
Feb 202012,074
Jan 202011,131
Dec 201910,903
Oct 20199,232
Aug 20199,050
Jul 201910,310
Jun 201910,517
May 201911,055
Mar 20199,933
Feb 201910,160
Jan 201910,053
Dec 20189,561
Nov 20189,928
Oct 20189,683
Sept 201810,228
Aug 201810,799
Jul 201812,068
Jun 201813,318
May 201814,461
Apr 201813,286
Mar 201813,048
Feb 201812,890
Jan 201811,838

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620