Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,594–11,154

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,685–12,631

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,594 and 11,154 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,685 and 12,631 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mutaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,594 and 11,154 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,685 and 12,631 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 21,106); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,183–10,385 9,224 7,663–11,278 9,678 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,582–10,467 8,825 7,103–11,758 8,934 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,594–11,154 8,816 7,129–13,605 9,004 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,708–11,505 8,977 6,935–14,478 9,374 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,685–12,631 9,167 6,735–21,106 10,025 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,833
Jun 20268,750
May 20269,639
Apr 20268,875
Mar 20267,935
Feb 202610,950
Jan 20269,576
Dec 20259,300
Nov 20259,000
Oct 20258,955
Sept 202510,460
Aug 202510,833
Jul 202510,805
Jun 202511,478
May 202510,479
Apr 202511,025
Mar 20259,837
Feb 20258,310
Jan 20257,569
Dec 20246,554
Nov 20245,903
Oct 20245,542
Sept 20245,785
Aug 20245,885
Jul 20246,000
Jun 20246,054
May 20245,879
Apr 20245,500
Mar 20245,192
Feb 20244,986
Jan 20245,317
Oct 20235,557
Sept 20235,479
Aug 20236,300
Jul 20235,561
Jun 20235,436
May 20235,363
Apr 20234,975
Mar 20234,712
Feb 20234,424
Dec 20224,225
Nov 20223,983
Oct 20223,908
Sept 20224,680
Aug 20224,892
Jul 20224,950
May 20224,561
Apr 20223,885
Mar 20223,726
Feb 20223,496
Jan 20223,500
Oct 20213,067
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,756
Mar 20212,447
Feb 20212,861
Jan 20212,542
Dec 20202,244
Nov 20202,183
Oct 20202,545
Sept 20202,100
Aug 20202,482
Jul 20202,447
Jun 20202,478
Mar 20202,475
Feb 20202,275
Jan 20202,300
Dec 20192,280
Nov 20192,350
Oct 20192,150
Sept 20192,460
Aug 20192,650
Jul 20192,740
Jun 20192,767
May 20192,617
Mar 20192,420
Feb 20192,283
Jan 20192,100
Dec 20182,133
Nov 20182,033
Oct 20181,940
Sept 20182,283
Aug 20183,100
Jul 20183,533
Jun 20183,250
May 20182,717
Apr 20182,300
Mar 20182,450
Feb 20182,120
Jan 20182,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2452-62-retail-kg.