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Maize (white) in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,249–2,014

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,203–2,336

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,249 and 2,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,203 and 2,336 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Mutaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,249 and 2,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,203 and 2,336 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,742); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,190–1,567 1,351 1,077–1,968 1,700 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,206–1,719 1,410 1,043–2,274 1,766 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,249–2,014 1,446 1,041–3,979 1,959 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,246–2,067 1,486 1,071–4,253 2,056 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,203–2,336 1,422 1,021–6,742 1,905 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,350
Jun 20261,050
May 20261,206
Apr 20261,038
Mar 20261,092
Feb 20261,485
Jan 20261,800
Dec 20251,625
Nov 20251,612
Oct 20251,549
Sept 20251,382
Aug 20251,233
Jul 20251,395
Jun 20251,353
May 20251,060
Apr 20251,052
Mar 20251,107
Feb 20251,512
Jan 20251,936
Dec 20242,153
Nov 20242,031
Oct 20241,812
Sept 20241,697
Aug 20241,594
Jul 20241,300
Jun 20241,173
May 20241,178
Apr 20241,200
Mar 20241,250
Feb 20241,390
Jan 20241,592
Oct 20231,653
Sept 20231,682
Aug 20231,642
Jul 20231,544
Jun 20231,368
May 20231,373
Apr 20231,244
Mar 20231,572
Feb 20231,539
Dec 20221,800
Nov 20221,758
Oct 20221,599
Sept 20221,424
Aug 20221,364
Jul 20221,100
May 2022927
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022717
Feb 2022756
Jan 2022975
Oct 2021967
May 2021665
Apr 2021643
Mar 2021591
Feb 2021669
Jan 20211,017
Dec 2020900
Nov 2020925
Oct 2020791
Sept 2020754
Aug 2020672
Jul 2020601
Jun 2020586
Mar 2020575
Feb 2020475
Jan 2020800
Dec 20191,180
Oct 2019917
Aug 2019712
Jul 2019840
Jun 2019500
May 2019542
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019675
Jan 2019700
Dec 2018642
Nov 2018575
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018475
Aug 2018483
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018425
May 2018435
Apr 2018913
Mar 2018583
Feb 2018620
Jan 2018838
Dec 2017880
Nov 2017986
Oct 20171,120
Sept 20171,029
Aug 20171,000
Jul 20171,050
Jun 20171,050
May 2017950
Apr 20171,100
Mar 2017850
Feb 20171,100
Jan 20171,267
Dec 20161,200
Nov 2016980
Oct 2016775

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2452-67-retail-kg.