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Cassava flour in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,108–1,692

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,071–1,946

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 24% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,108 and 1,692 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,071 and 1,946 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mutaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 24% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,108 and 1,692 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,071 and 1,946 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,0002,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,315); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,149–1,441 1,283 1,026–1,648 1,454 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,087–1,525 1,281 988–1,794 1,354 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,108–1,692 1,303 932–1,935 1,522 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,038–1,747 1,297 975–2,182 1,430 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,071–1,946 1,338 948–3,315 1,528 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,250
Jun 20261,250
May 20261,650
Apr 20261,425
Mar 20261,272
Feb 20261,280
Jan 20261,255
Dec 20251,070
Nov 20251,112
Oct 20251,194
Sept 20251,175
Aug 20251,200
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,636
May 20251,529
Apr 20251,409
Mar 20251,338
Feb 20251,300
Jan 20251,378
Dec 20241,380
Nov 20241,372
Oct 20241,286
Sept 20241,410
Aug 20241,436
Jul 20241,450
Jun 20241,480
May 20241,458
Apr 20241,675
Mar 20241,623
Feb 20241,678
Jan 20241,700
Oct 20231,463
Sept 20231,551
Aug 20231,650
Jul 20231,661
Jun 20231,745
May 20231,746
Apr 20231,847
Mar 20231,773
Feb 20231,539
Dec 20221,225
Nov 20221,175
Oct 20221,075
Sept 20221,059
Aug 20221,083
Jul 20221,050
May 20221,016
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022922
Feb 20221,044
Jan 20221,050
Oct 2021800
May 2021900
Apr 2021902
Mar 2021871
Feb 2021861
Jan 2021850
Dec 2020800
Nov 2020792
Oct 2020673
Sept 2020646
Aug 2020640
Jul 2020717
Jun 2020689
Mar 2020525
Feb 2020550
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Oct 2019425
Aug 2019462
Jul 2019410
Jun 2019567
May 2019500
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019517
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018492
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018430
Sept 2018458
Aug 2018467
Jul 2018617
Jun 2018667
May 2018725
Apr 2018700
Mar 2018767
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018912
Dec 2017940
Nov 20171,014
Oct 20171,060
Sept 20171,057
Aug 20171,050
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,250
Apr 20171,100
Mar 20171,075
Feb 20171,100
Jan 20171,033
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016905
Oct 2016800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2452-74-retail-kg.