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Maize flour in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,615–2,252

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,546–2,473

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,615 and 2,252 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,546 and 2,473 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mutaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,615 and 2,252 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,546 and 2,473 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,916); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,591–1,894 1,726 1,454–2,183 2,060 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,578–2,057 1,784 1,449–2,327 2,140 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,615–2,252 1,804 1,423–2,836 2,288 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,612–2,429 1,869 1,384–3,914 2,405 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,546–2,473 1,806 1,334–3,916 2,281 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,733
Jun 20261,575
May 20261,578
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,545
Feb 20261,870
Jan 20262,085
Dec 20251,965
Nov 20251,974
Oct 20251,979
Sept 20251,744
Aug 20251,700
Jul 20251,849
Jun 20251,528
May 20251,500
Apr 20251,581
Mar 20251,460
Feb 20251,676
Jan 20252,414
Dec 20242,363
Nov 20242,212
Oct 20242,063
Sept 20241,932
Aug 20241,776
Jul 20241,433
Jun 20241,481
May 20241,476
Apr 20241,775
Mar 20241,634
Feb 20241,684
Jan 20241,867
Oct 20231,903
Sept 20231,923
Aug 20231,900
Jul 20231,761
Jun 20231,650
May 20231,623
Apr 20231,581
Mar 20231,786
Feb 20231,709
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20221,958
Oct 20221,741
Sept 20221,596
Aug 20221,540
Jul 20221,300
May 20221,127
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022922
Feb 20221,058
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,100
May 2021950
Apr 2021905
Mar 2021800
Feb 2021911
Jan 20211,200
Dec 20201,100
Nov 20201,000
Oct 2020982
Sept 2020909
Aug 2020727
Jul 2020800
Jun 2020761
Mar 2020750
Feb 2020775
Jan 20201,000
Dec 20191,320
Oct 20191,080
Aug 2019850
Jul 20191,000
Jun 2019700
May 2019667
Mar 2019620
Feb 2019867
Jan 2019867
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018733
Oct 2018630
Sept 2018650
Aug 2018733
Jul 2018733
Jun 2018617
May 2018633
Apr 2018650
Mar 2018725
Feb 2018860
Jan 20181,000
Dec 20171,080
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,300
Sept 20171,229
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,283
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,150
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,075
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,292
Dec 20161,260
Nov 20161,090
Oct 2016975

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2452-76-retail-kg.