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Oil (vegetable) in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,849–19,174

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,824–20,850

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,849 and 19,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,824 and 20,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mutaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,849 and 19,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,824 and 20,850 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,108); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,432–17,871 15,653 13,407–18,158 18,528 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,202–18,385 15,800 13,133–21,069 18,840 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,849–19,174 15,399 12,440–24,791 17,942 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,782–19,693 15,620 13,026–23,424 18,329 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,824–20,850 15,621 12,412–26,108 19,560 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,833
Jun 202614,500
May 202616,278
Apr 202616,750
Mar 202615,000
Feb 202615,350
Jan 202615,909
Dec 202514,700
Nov 202517,514
Oct 202517,056
Sept 202517,708
Aug 202517,500
Jul 202517,385
Jun 202518,111
May 202517,806
Apr 202516,986
Mar 202516,299
Feb 202515,357
Jan 202515,639
Dec 202414,389
Nov 202412,875
Oct 202413,275
Sept 202413,808
Aug 202413,756
Jul 202412,333
Jun 202411,750
May 202410,778
Apr 202410,625
Mar 20249,225
Feb 20249,850
Jan 20249,917
Oct 202311,850
Sept 20239,705
Aug 202310,000
Jul 202310,278
Jun 202310,455
May 202310,667
Apr 20239,281
Mar 20239,490
Feb 20239,791
Dec 20229,750
Nov 20229,583
Oct 20229,438
Sept 20229,783
Aug 20229,854
Jul 20229,750
May 20228,932
Apr 20228,846
Mar 20228,500
Feb 20228,500
Jan 20228,875
Oct 20218,833
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,417
Mar 20216,088
Feb 20215,889
Jan 20215,125
Dec 20205,289
Nov 20205,167
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,794
Aug 20204,823
Jul 20205,057
Jun 20204,917
Mar 20204,500
Feb 20204,625
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,740
Nov 20194,000
Oct 20194,333
Sept 20194,760
Aug 20194,750
Jul 20194,820
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,350
Mar 20194,600
Feb 20195,167
Jan 20194,500
Dec 20184,583
Nov 20184,667
Oct 20184,800
Sept 20185,133
Aug 20184,933
Jul 20184,833
Jun 20185,000
May 20184,833
Apr 20185,083
Mar 20184,917
Feb 20185,060
Jan 20185,025

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2452-96-retail-kg.