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Food basket in Mutaho

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

23,862–32,832

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

23,216–38,878

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 26,225 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,862 and 32,832 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,216 and 38,878 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mutaho: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 26,225 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,862 and 32,832 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,216 and 38,878 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 56,865); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 24,442–29,624 26,776 23,127–32,414
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 23,627–30,565 26,541 22,438–34,353
Nov 2026
Next month		 23,862–32,832 27,346 22,016–36,535
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 23,304–35,566 27,661 21,957–43,464
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 23,216–38,878 28,070 21,523–56,865
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202626,225
Jun 202625,088
May 202632,871
Apr 202630,649
Mar 202625,830
Feb 202627,604
Jan 202625,589
Dec 202523,536
Nov 202523,432
Oct 202524,660
Sept 202525,409
Aug 202525,895
Jul 202529,619
Jun 202531,083
May 202529,256
Apr 202528,738
Mar 202528,070
Feb 202526,198
Jan 202526,846
Dec 202427,255
Nov 202426,026
Oct 202424,347
Sept 202425,773
Aug 202425,874
Jul 202425,230
Jun 202425,628
May 202424,969
Apr 202428,800
Mar 202427,643
Feb 202428,292
Jan 202428,104
Oct 202326,152
Sept 202326,712
Aug 202328,287
Jul 202327,740
Jun 202327,593
May 202328,832
Apr 202331,355
Mar 202330,700
Feb 202327,165
Dec 202221,170
Nov 202220,388
Oct 202218,570
Sept 202218,409
Aug 202218,584
Jul 202217,906
May 202217,768
Apr 202217,643
Mar 202215,531
Feb 202216,685
Jan 202216,770
Oct 202113,516
May 202115,030
Apr 202115,059
Mar 202114,603
Feb 202114,657
Jan 202113,604
Dec 202013,569
Nov 202013,527
Oct 202012,398
Sept 202011,480
Aug 202011,529
Jul 202012,254
Jun 202011,651
Mar 202010,303
Feb 20209,970
Jan 20209,027
Dec 20199,391
Oct 20198,234
Aug 20199,044
Jul 20198,485
Jun 20199,879
May 20199,636
Mar 20199,086
Feb 20199,501
Jan 20199,339
Dec 20189,472
Nov 20189,257
Oct 20188,263
Sept 20188,695
Aug 20189,227
Jul 201811,293
Jun 201811,608
May 201812,374
Apr 201811,607
Mar 201812,166
Feb 201812,431
Jan 201813,781

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620