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Oil (palm) in Muzinda

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,600–9,841

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,470–9,662

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,600 and 9,841 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,470 and 9,662 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Muzinda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,600 and 9,841 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,470 and 9,662 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 14,293); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,866–9,041 7,635 6,426–9,491 9,284 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,584–8,907 7,383 5,934–11,855 8,470 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,600–9,841 7,476 5,615–14,293 8,754 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,694–10,097 7,809 5,570–10,780 9,202 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,470–9,662 7,719 5,544–9,867 9,199 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20267,000
Aug 20267,735
Jul 20268,000
Jun 20268,278
May 20268,500
Apr 20268,167
Mar 20267,744
Feb 20267,655
Jan 20267,410
Dec 20258,167
Nov 20258,146
Oct 20258,226
Sept 20259,826
Aug 20259,417
Jul 20259,615
Jun 20259,630
May 202510,396
Apr 20259,384
Mar 20258,382
Feb 20258,714
Jan 20256,125
Dec 20245,868
Nov 20245,406
Oct 20245,818
Jul 20245,500
Jun 20246,000
May 20246,000
Mar 20245,000
Feb 20244,500
Jan 20245,375
Dec 20235,250
Nov 20235,250
Oct 20236,341
Sept 20236,617
Aug 20236,278
Jul 20236,333
Jun 20236,500
May 20235,028
Apr 20235,250
Mar 20234,750
Feb 20234,500
Jan 20235,000
Dec 20224,750
Nov 20224,800
Oct 20224,458
Sept 20224,500
Aug 20224,265
Jul 20227,000
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,792
Apr 20224,033
Mar 20224,059
Feb 20224,250
Jan 20223,625
Oct 20213,250
Sept 20214,250
May 20213,150
Apr 20212,917
Mar 20213,067
Feb 20212,733
Jan 20212,554
Dec 20202,713
Nov 20202,473
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,451
Aug 20202,356
Jul 20202,731
Jun 20202,891
Mar 20202,640
Feb 20202,533
Jan 20202,600
Dec 20192,600
Nov 20192,360
Oct 20192,260
Sept 20192,050
Aug 20192,425
Jul 20192,675
Jun 20193,250
May 20193,400
Mar 20192,600
Feb 20192,133
Jan 20192,800
Dec 20182,833
Nov 20182,600
Oct 20181,575
Sept 20182,400
Aug 20182,925
Jul 20182,875
Jun 20182,880
May 20183,040
Apr 20182,100
Mar 20182,220
Feb 20182,020
Jan 20182,088

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2453-62-retail-kg.