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Cassava flour in Muzinda

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,361–2,306

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,405–2,612

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 30% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,361 and 2,306 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,405 and 2,612 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Muzinda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 30% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,361 and 2,306 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,405 and 2,612 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,576); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,395–1,959 1,643 1,270–2,116 1,684 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,309–2,076 1,593 1,211–2,390 1,661 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,361–2,306 1,657 1,107–2,679 1,937 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,349–2,444 1,688 1,174–3,253 1,881 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,405–2,612 1,741 1,175–3,576 1,961 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20262,000
Aug 20261,626
Jul 20261,800
Jun 20261,678
May 20262,317
Apr 20262,033
Mar 20261,781
Feb 20261,454
Jan 20261,549
Dec 20251,433
Nov 20251,346
Oct 20251,313
Sept 20251,504
Aug 20251,592
Jul 20251,754
Jun 20251,967
May 20251,848
Apr 20251,754
Mar 20251,862
Feb 20251,739
Jan 20251,646
Dec 20241,925
Nov 20241,819
Oct 20241,564
Jul 20241,250
Jun 20241,200
May 20241,700
Mar 20242,000
Feb 20242,000
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,968
Sept 20232,035
Aug 20231,806
Jul 20232,033
Jun 20232,100
May 20232,028
Apr 20232,025
Mar 20232,183
Feb 20231,850
Jan 20231,733
Dec 20221,400
Nov 20221,425
Oct 20221,408
Sept 20221,121
Aug 20221,103
Jul 2022900
Jun 20221,500
May 20221,369
Apr 20221,283
Mar 20221,070
Feb 20221,064
Jan 20221,088
Oct 2021925
Sept 2021875
May 20211,100
Apr 2021983
Mar 2021868
Feb 2021844
Jan 2021886
Dec 2020806
Nov 2020790
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020672
Aug 2020648
Jul 2020649
Jun 2020722
Mar 2020770
Feb 2020792
Jan 2020750
Dec 2019683
Oct 2019510
Aug 2019575
Jul 2019625
Jun 2019425
May 2019690
Mar 2019700
Feb 2019733
Jan 2019550
Dec 2018567
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018438
Sept 2018462
Aug 2018512
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018800
May 2018960
Apr 2018960
Mar 2018860
Feb 2018880
Jan 2018950
Nov 20171,100
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,100
Aug 20171,250
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,350
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,350
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,250
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,050
Nov 2016867
Oct 2016900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2453-74-retail-kg.