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Oil (vegetable) in Muzinda

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,240–16,957

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,812–17,422

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,240 and 16,957 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,812 and 17,422 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Muzinda: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,240 and 16,957 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,812 and 17,422 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,715–15,867 13,712 12,081–16,525 16,724 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,270–16,312 13,863 11,405–18,803 16,381 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,240–16,957 13,789 10,870–18,647 16,182 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 11,799–17,367 13,498 9,617–20,785 15,687 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,812–17,422 13,800 10,455–18,674 16,841 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202614,000
Jul 202614,000
Jun 202614,222
May 202614,000
Apr 202614,333
Mar 202612,511
Feb 202613,857
Jan 202613,897
Dec 202515,000
Nov 202516,250
Oct 202517,548
Sept 202519,217
Aug 202517,833
Jul 202519,077
Jun 202518,000
May 202517,854
Apr 202517,993
Mar 202517,382
Feb 202515,107
Jan 202512,458
Dec 202412,216
Nov 202411,948
Oct 202412,818
Jul 202411,500
Jun 202410,000
May 202412,500
Feb 20247,750
Jan 20248,500
Dec 20238,750
Nov 20238,500
Oct 20238,682
Sept 20238,650
Aug 20238,625
Jul 20239,333
Jun 20238,500
May 20238,167
Apr 20238,250
Mar 20238,667
Feb 20238,000
Jan 20238,500
Dec 20228,500
Nov 20228,500
Oct 20227,445
Sept 20228,125
Aug 20228,412
Jul 20228,000
Jun 20227,000
May 20228,167
Apr 20227,333
Mar 20228,000
Feb 20227,321
Jan 20227,875
Oct 20217,000
Sept 20218,250
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,815
Mar 20215,926
Feb 20215,694
Jan 20215,358
Dec 20205,010
Nov 20205,150
Oct 20205,500
Sept 20204,299
Aug 20203,870
Jul 20205,244
Jun 20205,219
Mar 20204,200
Feb 20204,550
Jan 20204,333
Dec 20194,083
Nov 20194,300
Oct 20193,900
Sept 20194,125
Aug 20194,625
Jul 20194,125
Jun 20193,500
May 20193,875
Mar 20194,000
Feb 20195,333
Jan 20194,500
Dec 20184,333
Nov 20184,833
Oct 20185,250
Sept 20185,750
Aug 20185,750
Jul 20185,625
Jun 20184,820
May 20185,200
Apr 20184,980
Mar 20185,200
Feb 20185,100
Jan 20185,075

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2453-96-retail-kg.