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Food basket in Muzinda

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,929–40,529

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,148–43,714

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,329 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,929 and 40,529 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,148 and 43,714 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Muzinda: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,329 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,929 and 40,529 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,148 and 43,714 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 55,582); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 27,819–35,065 30,979 26,042–37,878
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,557–37,168 30,579 24,627–40,984
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,929–40,529 31,695 23,353–45,947
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,181–42,445 32,403 24,649–51,080
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,148–43,714 32,513 24,016–55,582
Cost history (92 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202634,230
Aug 202630,329
Jul 202632,520
Jun 202631,035
May 202641,375
Apr 202637,685
Mar 202632,501
Feb 202628,208
Jan 202628,645
Dec 202527,815
Nov 202526,754
Oct 202526,500
Sept 202529,872
Aug 202530,698
Jul 202533,275
Jun 202535,324
May 202534,403
Apr 202533,401
Mar 202534,060
Feb 202532,509
Jan 202529,376
Dec 202434,133
Nov 202431,793
Oct 202429,046
Jul 202423,295
Jun 202423,400
May 202429,670
Mar 202433,750
Feb 202431,965
Jan 202432,254
Dec 202333,112
Nov 202333,022
Oct 202333,177
Sept 202334,004
Aug 202330,488
Jul 202333,120
Jun 202334,965
May 202333,453
Apr 202334,538
Mar 202335,447
Feb 202330,465
Jan 202328,810
Dec 202224,038
Nov 202224,642
Oct 202223,362
Sept 202219,337
Aug 202218,915
Jul 202218,150
Jun 202225,065
May 202223,455
Apr 202221,423
Mar 202217,939
Feb 202217,800
Jan 202217,689
Oct 202115,772
Sept 202115,772
May 202118,254
Apr 202116,598
Mar 202115,388
Feb 202114,749
Jan 202114,616
Dec 202014,516
Nov 202014,049
Oct 202012,150
Sept 202012,475
Aug 202011,970
Jul 202011,855
Jun 202012,581
Mar 202013,474
Feb 202013,378
Jan 202012,714
Dec 201912,184
Oct 20199,731
Aug 201910,463
Jul 201911,371
Jun 20199,052
May 201912,822
Mar 201912,294
Feb 201912,432
Jan 201910,422
Dec 201811,095
Nov 20189,774
Oct 20188,362
Sept 20189,186
Aug 201810,013
Jul 20189,784
Jun 201813,387
May 201815,670
Apr 201814,733
Mar 201813,652
Feb 201813,754
Jan 201814,640

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620