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Oil (palm) in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,155–11,288

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,995–11,707

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,155 and 11,288 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,995 and 11,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mwakiro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,155 and 11,288 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,995 and 11,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,671–10,984 9,639 8,238–11,464 11,270 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,129–10,958 9,458 7,856–10,958 10,560 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,155–11,288 9,519 7,260–12,259 10,797 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,954–11,385 9,293 7,209–12,713 10,243 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,995–11,707 9,591 7,301–12,134 10,875 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,000
Jul 20269,000
Jun 202610,725
May 202611,247
Apr 202611,667
Mar 202611,467
Feb 202610,475
Jan 202610,500
Dec 20259,625
Nov 202510,933
Oct 202510,000
Sept 202511,217
Aug 202511,912
Jul 202512,088
Jun 202511,356
May 202511,715
Apr 202511,761
Mar 20259,933
Feb 20258,841
Jan 20257,412
Dec 20246,646
Nov 20246,650
Oct 20246,927
Sept 20247,000
Aug 20246,875
Jul 20246,625
Jun 20246,938
May 20246,769
Apr 20246,000
Mar 20245,900
Feb 20246,000
Jan 20246,000
Nov 20237,000
Oct 20236,906
Sept 20236,355
Aug 20237,000
Jul 20236,125
Jun 20236,000
May 20236,000
Apr 20235,310
Mar 20235,121
Feb 20235,067
Jan 20235,200
Dec 20224,755
Nov 20224,967
Oct 20224,750
Sept 20225,000
Aug 20225,350
May 20224,607
Apr 20224,431
Mar 20223,810
Feb 20223,950
Jan 20223,800
Oct 20213,650
Apr 20212,850
Mar 20212,733
Feb 20212,800
Jan 20212,750
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,444
Oct 20202,391
Sept 20202,505
Aug 20202,456
Jul 20202,617
Jun 20202,617
Mar 20202,360
Feb 20202,567
Jan 20202,567
Dec 20192,500
Nov 20192,450
Oct 20192,720
Sept 20192,660
Aug 20192,760
Jul 20192,880
Jun 20192,750
May 20192,850
Mar 20192,525
Feb 20192,425
Jan 20192,340
Dec 20182,475
Nov 20182,440
Oct 20182,300
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,725
Jul 20183,800
Jun 20183,800
May 20183,050
Apr 20182,575
Mar 20182,420
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20181,886

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2454-62-retail-kg.