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Maize (white) in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,154–1,808

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,087–1,823

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,154 and 1,808 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,087 and 1,823 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Mwakiro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,154 and 1,808 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,087 and 1,823 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,066–1,484 1,249 968–1,695 1,638 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,113–1,646 1,353 1,005–1,874 1,834 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,154–1,808 1,405 1,017–2,301 2,088 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,098–1,764 1,329 948–2,320 1,712 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,087–1,823 1,317 940–2,205 1,775 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,283
Jul 20261,000
Jun 20261,162
May 20261,139
Apr 2026967
Mar 20261,037
Feb 20261,498
Jan 20261,675
Dec 20251,350
Nov 20251,457
Oct 20251,329
Sept 20251,317
Aug 20251,335
Jul 20251,347
Jun 20251,308
May 20251,067
Apr 20251,159
Mar 20251,077
Feb 20251,497
Jan 20251,900
Dec 20242,011
Nov 20242,000
Oct 20241,950
Sept 20241,800
Aug 20241,600
Jul 20241,312
Jun 20241,197
May 2024946
Apr 20241,400
Mar 20241,350
Feb 20241,550
Jan 20241,305
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,631
Sept 20231,710
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,512
Jun 20231,425
May 20231,362
Apr 20231,373
Mar 20231,476
Feb 20231,443
Jan 20231,400
Dec 20221,545
Nov 20221,590
Oct 20222,000
Sept 20221,300
Aug 20221,300
May 2022882
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022618
Feb 2022775
Jan 2022950
Oct 2021900
Apr 2021680
Mar 2021595
Feb 2021650
Jan 2021862
Dec 2020800
Nov 2020800
Oct 2020714
Sept 2020662
Aug 2020669
Jul 2020604
Jun 2020579
Mar 2020560
Feb 2020617
Jan 2020967
Dec 2019920
Oct 2019800
Aug 2019680
Jul 2019780
Jun 2019450
May 2019462
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019562
Jan 2019590
Dec 2018567
Nov 2018525
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018512
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018462
Jun 2018462
May 2018425
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018510
Feb 2018488
Jan 2018864
Nov 20172,000
Oct 20172,000
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,067
Jun 20171,075
May 20171,060
Apr 2017960
Mar 2017892
Feb 2017900
Jan 20171,100
Dec 2016900
Nov 20161,462
Oct 2016825

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2454-67-retail-kg.