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Cassava flour in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 11% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,408–2,404

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,447–2,694

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,408 and 2,404 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,447 and 2,694 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mwakiro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,408 and 2,404 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,447 and 2,694 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,161); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,564–2,170 1,849 1,424–2,504 1,803 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,442–2,170 1,782 1,295–2,898 1,562 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,408–2,404 1,723 1,328–3,404 1,881 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,387–2,573 1,800 1,271–4,161 1,848 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,447–2,694 1,815 1,211–3,761 1,931 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,939
May 20261,914
Apr 20261,583
Mar 20261,743
Feb 20261,772
Jan 20261,725
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,292
Oct 20251,353
Sept 20251,652
Aug 20251,759
Jul 20251,912
Jun 20252,072
May 20251,976
Apr 20251,948
Mar 20251,837
Feb 20251,910
Jan 20251,647
Dec 20241,872
Nov 20241,605
Oct 20241,646
Sept 20241,500
Aug 20241,850
Jul 20241,725
Jun 20241,650
May 20241,838
Apr 20241,700
Mar 20241,800
Feb 20241,964
Jan 20241,970
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,531
Sept 20231,470
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20232,050
Jun 20231,700
May 20231,625
Apr 20231,797
Mar 20231,965
Feb 20231,629
Jan 20231,500
Dec 20221,259
Nov 20221,210
Oct 2022975
Sept 20221,311
Aug 20221,088
May 20221,200
Apr 20221,146
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,000
Jan 2022900
Oct 2021850
Apr 20211,000
Mar 20211,000
Feb 20211,050
Jan 20211,025
Dec 20201,000
Nov 2020867
Oct 2020705
Sept 2020800
Aug 2020800
Jul 2020800
Jun 2020800
Mar 2020660
Feb 2020683
Jan 2020567
Dec 2019620
Oct 2019460
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019580
Jun 2019500
May 2019600
Mar 2019425
Feb 2019412
Jan 2019480
Dec 2018425
Nov 2018490
Oct 2018412
Sept 2018475
Aug 2018550
Jul 2018717
Jun 2018800
May 2018675
Apr 2018875
Mar 2018780
Feb 2018700
Jan 2018986
Dec 20171,100
Nov 20171,180
Oct 2017983
Sept 20171,117
Aug 20171,267
Jul 20171,340
Jun 20171,400
May 20171,380
Apr 20171,320
Mar 20171,317
Feb 20171,225
Jan 20171,160
Dec 20161,017
Nov 2016964
Oct 2016775

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2454-74-retail-kg.