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Maize flour in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,523–2,576

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,436–3,210

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,523 and 2,576 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,436 and 3,210 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mwakiro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,523 and 2,576 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,436 and 3,210 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 9,333); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,466–2,043 1,699 1,364–2,368 2,169 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,473–2,240 1,790 1,305–2,691 2,274 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,523–2,576 1,817 1,284–4,127 2,503 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,495–2,773 1,834 1,288–4,585 2,492 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,436–3,210 1,791 1,259–9,333 2,472 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,797
May 20261,763
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,767
Feb 20261,965
Jan 20262,150
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20252,117
Oct 20251,941
Sept 20251,830
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20251,964
May 20251,500
Apr 20251,620
Mar 20251,650
Feb 20252,310
Jan 20252,500
Dec 20242,561
Nov 20242,410
Oct 20242,208
Sept 20242,000
Aug 20242,000
Jul 20241,850
Jun 20241,672
May 20241,595
Apr 20241,750
Mar 20241,700
Feb 20242,000
Jan 20241,930
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,012
Sept 20232,030
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20231,850
Jun 20231,750
May 20231,725
Apr 20231,843
Mar 20231,921
Feb 20231,833
Jan 20231,800
Dec 20221,873
Nov 20221,860
Oct 20221,650
Sept 20221,481
Aug 20221,427
May 20221,140
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,095
Feb 20221,200
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,200
Apr 2021975
Mar 20211,017
Feb 20211,050
Jan 20211,075
Dec 20201,000
Nov 2020956
Oct 2020841
Sept 2020812
Aug 2020784
Jul 2020792
Jun 2020733
Mar 2020700
Feb 2020783
Jan 20201,100
Dec 20191,090
Oct 2019960
Aug 2019860
Jul 2019920
Jun 2019600
May 2019600
Mar 2019550
Feb 2019700
Jan 2019730
Dec 2018762
Nov 2018700
Oct 2018725
Sept 2018658
Aug 2018712
Jul 2018658
Jun 2018625
May 2018600
Apr 2018600
Mar 2018740
Feb 2018750
Jan 20181,086
Dec 20171,167
Nov 20171,240
Oct 20171,258
Sept 20171,267
Aug 20171,267
Jul 20171,370
Jun 20171,333
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,260
Mar 20171,150
Feb 20171,150
Jan 20171,380
Dec 20161,240
Nov 20161,150
Oct 20161,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2454-76-retail-kg.