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Oil (vegetable) in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,629–17,187

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,282–17,152

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,629 and 17,187 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,282 and 17,152 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mwakiro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,629 and 17,187 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,282 and 17,152 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 22,085); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,869–16,106 14,045 12,128–17,194 16,975 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,584–16,558 14,052 11,579–19,093 17,306 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,629–17,187 14,132 11,460–22,085 16,530 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,352–17,325 13,954 11,187–21,763 16,427 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,282–17,152 14,143 10,581–18,276 17,221 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,000
Jul 202615,000
Jun 202613,275
May 202614,301
Apr 202614,333
Mar 202614,700
Feb 202613,825
Jan 202615,000
Dec 202514,500
Nov 202515,467
Oct 202510,882
Sept 202516,522
Aug 202515,676
Jul 202515,868
Jun 202515,724
May 202515,278
Apr 202514,565
Mar 202514,367
Feb 202514,302
Jan 202513,294
Dec 202412,065
Nov 202413,000
Oct 202413,604
Sept 202412,500
Aug 202412,375
Jul 202411,250
Jun 202410,438
May 20248,923
Apr 20248,750
Mar 20249,875
Feb 20249,773
Jan 20248,850
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20239,375
Sept 20239,375
Aug 20238,250
Jul 20238,250
Jun 20238,250
May 20238,875
Apr 20238,240
Mar 20238,458
Feb 20238,762
Jan 20237,000
Dec 20228,523
Nov 20228,231
Oct 20229,275
Sept 20229,014
Aug 20228,990
May 20228,167
Apr 20227,808
Mar 20228,325
Feb 20228,062
Jan 20227,750
Oct 20218,950
Apr 20214,950
Mar 20214,400
Feb 20214,500
Jan 20214,400
Dec 20204,500
Nov 20203,933
Oct 20204,145
Sept 20203,849
Aug 20203,666
Jul 20203,967
Jun 20204,000
Mar 20203,660
Feb 20203,850
Jan 20203,600
Dec 20193,520
Nov 20193,833
Oct 20193,960
Sept 20193,860
Aug 20194,160
Jul 20193,760
Jun 20194,250
May 20193,775
Mar 20194,150
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20194,060
Dec 20184,000
Nov 20183,860
Oct 20184,450
Sept 20184,250
Aug 20184,375
Jul 20184,417
Jun 20184,325
May 20184,250
Apr 20183,550
Mar 20183,860
Feb 20184,375
Jan 20184,071

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2454-96-retail-kg.