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Food basket in Mwakiro

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,809–41,608

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

28,278–47,996

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 35,400 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,809 and 41,608 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,278 and 47,996 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mwakiro: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 35,400 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,809 and 41,608 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,278 and 47,996 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 60,935); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 30,427–38,087 33,822 28,390–42,307
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,639–39,534 33,014 26,745–49,743
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,809–41,608 32,721 26,843–57,462
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 28,089–43,253 33,601 25,932–60,627
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 28,278–47,996 34,187 25,530–60,935
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202635,400
Jul 202633,810
Jun 202635,037
May 202637,803
Apr 202636,950
Mar 202634,652
Feb 202633,614
Jan 202632,670
Dec 202528,916
Nov 202527,394
Oct 202527,900
Sept 202532,121
Aug 202533,603
Jul 202535,554
Jun 202536,694
May 202535,958
Apr 202536,674
Mar 202534,366
Feb 202534,403
Jan 202530,798
Dec 202433,170
Nov 202429,330
Oct 202429,641
Sept 202428,050
Aug 202431,714
Jul 202429,501
Jun 202428,783
May 202431,128
Apr 202429,580
Mar 202430,981
Feb 202432,400
Jan 202432,757
Nov 202327,330
Oct 202327,910
Sept 202326,669
Aug 202328,440
Jul 202332,876
Jun 202327,600
May 202328,680
Apr 202331,176
Mar 202333,386
Feb 202328,379
Jan 202325,188
Dec 202222,464
Nov 202221,781
Oct 202218,082
Sept 202221,858
Aug 202219,067
May 202220,441
Apr 202219,760
Mar 202216,892
Feb 202216,548
Jan 202215,042
Oct 202114,698
Apr 202116,374
Mar 202116,556
Feb 202117,142
Jan 202116,402
Dec 202016,716
Nov 202014,967
Oct 202012,927
Sept 202013,815
Aug 202013,798
Jul 202013,258
Jun 202013,063
Mar 202011,960
Feb 202011,726
Jan 202010,071
Dec 201911,253
Oct 20199,377
Aug 20199,398
Jul 201910,765
Jun 20199,112
May 201911,012
Mar 20198,777
Feb 20198,356
Jan 20198,995
Dec 20188,968
Nov 20189,400
Oct 20188,472
Sept 20189,368
Aug 201810,588
Jul 201812,662
Jun 201813,730
May 201812,004
Apr 201813,627
Mar 201812,146
Feb 201811,307
Jan 201814,673

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620