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Oil (palm) in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,201–11,651

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,187–12,244

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,201 and 11,651 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,187 and 12,244 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Mwaro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,201 and 11,651 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,187 and 12,244 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,854–11,361 9,899 7,960–12,063 11,118 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,370–11,242 9,433 7,487–13,524 10,078 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,201–11,651 9,159 7,333–14,347 9,825 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,243–12,059 9,261 7,294–15,170 10,122 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,187–12,244 9,487 6,888–15,420 10,322 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,500
Jun 202611,056
May 202611,111
Apr 202610,333
Mar 202612,413
Feb 20269,599
Jan 20269,735
Dec 20259,794
Nov 202510,457
Oct 202510,559
Sept 202510,957
Aug 202511,650
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202511,098
May 202511,900
Apr 202510,875
Mar 202510,847
Feb 20258,156
Jan 20256,729
Dec 20245,958
Nov 20246,206
Oct 20246,245
Sept 20246,111
Aug 20246,500
Jul 20245,889
Jun 20246,171
May 20245,976
Apr 20246,648
Mar 20245,310
Feb 20245,673
Jan 20245,781
Dec 20236,500
Nov 20235,792
Oct 20235,480
Sept 20236,610
Aug 20236,500
Jul 20235,883
Jun 20235,542
May 20235,418
Apr 20235,300
Mar 20235,028
Feb 20234,762
Dec 20224,571
Nov 20224,612
Oct 20224,650
Sept 20224,898
Aug 20225,494
May 20224,597
Apr 20224,442
Mar 20223,933
Feb 20223,867
Jan 20223,700
Oct 20213,833
Jul 20213,800
Apr 20212,842
Mar 20212,756
Feb 20212,867
Jan 20212,650
Dec 20202,748
Nov 20202,676
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,748
Aug 20202,667
Jul 20202,723
Jun 20202,825
Mar 20202,700
Feb 20202,600
Jan 20202,650
Dec 20192,600
Nov 20192,300
Oct 20192,700
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,050
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,920
Mar 20192,517
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,420
Dec 20182,333
Nov 20182,200
Oct 20182,600
Sept 20183,120
Aug 20183,433
Jul 20183,483
Jun 20183,171
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,740
Mar 20182,420
Feb 20182,600
Jan 20182,120

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2455-62-retail-kg.