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Maize (white) in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,465–2,177

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,372–2,552

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,465 and 2,177 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,372 and 2,552 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Mwaro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,465 and 2,177 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,372 and 2,552 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,921); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,400–1,714 1,541 1,287–2,285 1,969 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,398–1,803 1,564 1,238–2,791 1,972 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,465–2,177 1,623 1,273–4,129 2,244 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,461–2,238 1,708 1,242–3,803 2,400 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,372–2,552 1,612 1,113–6,921 2,157 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,483
Jun 20261,322
May 20261,422
Apr 20261,200
Mar 20261,386
Feb 20261,775
Jan 20261,912
Dec 20251,859
Nov 20251,720
Oct 20251,721
Sept 20251,609
Aug 20251,535
Jul 20251,541
Jun 20251,496
May 20251,435
Apr 20251,535
Mar 20251,706
Feb 20252,221
Jan 20252,412
Dec 20242,833
Nov 20242,335
Oct 20242,008
Sept 20241,739
Aug 20241,890
Jul 20241,556
Jun 20241,498
May 20241,527
Apr 20241,656
Mar 20241,610
Feb 20241,769
Jan 20241,946
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20231,900
Oct 20231,905
Sept 20231,959
Aug 20231,850
Jul 20231,825
Jun 20231,739
May 20231,613
Apr 20231,650
Mar 20231,745
Feb 20231,964
Dec 20222,020
Nov 20221,953
Oct 20221,668
Sept 20221,519
Aug 20221,450
May 20221,009
Apr 2022927
Mar 2022867
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,100
Jul 2021883
May 2021800
Apr 2021850
Mar 2021912
Feb 20211,083
Jan 20211,000
Dec 20201,026
Nov 20201,062
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020985
Aug 2020910
Jul 2020818
Jun 2020925
Mar 2020775
Feb 20201,038
Jan 20201,075
Dec 20191,290
Oct 2019967
Aug 2019800
Jul 2019892
Jun 2019650
May 2019710
Mar 2019750
Feb 2019608
Jan 2019840
Dec 2018833
Nov 2018750
Oct 2018680
Sept 2018660
Aug 2018742
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018657
May 2018750
Apr 2018720
Mar 2018840
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018950
Dec 20171,050
Nov 20171,133
Oct 20171,175
Sept 20171,233
Aug 20171,175
Jul 20171,175
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,175
Apr 20171,160
Mar 20171,200
Feb 20171,280
Jan 20171,350
Dec 20161,308
Nov 20161,175
Oct 20161,043

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2455-67-retail-kg.