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Cassava flour in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,339–1,962

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,282–2,142

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,339 and 1,962 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,282 and 2,142 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Mwaro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,339 and 1,962 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,282 and 2,142 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,146); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,420–1,757 1,571 1,301–1,822 1,865 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,383–1,789 1,568 1,286–1,985 1,711 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,339–1,962 1,575 1,250–2,209 1,949 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,328–2,059 1,555 1,193–2,579 1,835 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,282–2,142 1,563 1,167–3,146 1,772 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,522
Jun 20261,589
May 20261,689
Apr 20261,533
Mar 20261,512
Feb 20261,640
Jan 20261,594
Dec 20251,665
Nov 20251,564
Oct 20251,738
Sept 20251,620
Aug 20251,665
Jul 20251,659
Jun 20251,743
May 20251,702
Apr 20251,678
Mar 20251,622
Feb 20251,675
Jan 20251,558
Dec 20241,725
Nov 20241,806
Oct 20241,824
Sept 20241,722
Aug 20241,758
Jul 20241,667
Jun 20241,683
May 20241,856
Apr 20241,878
Mar 20241,982
Feb 20241,876
Jan 20241,935
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,827
Oct 20231,900
Sept 20231,900
Aug 20231,900
Jul 20231,933
Jun 20231,924
May 20231,932
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,837
Feb 20231,800
Dec 20221,434
Nov 20221,368
Oct 20221,181
Sept 20221,215
Aug 20221,159
May 20221,093
Apr 20221,027
Mar 20221,067
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021967
Jul 2021967
May 2021900
Apr 2021922
Mar 2021966
Feb 2021917
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020839
Nov 2020823
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020715
Aug 2020729
Jul 2020706
Jun 2020738
Mar 2020675
Feb 2020700
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019620
Oct 2019567
Aug 2019638
Jul 2019633
Jun 2019633
May 2019680
Mar 2019717
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019720
Dec 2018683
Nov 2018767
Oct 2018780
Sept 2018790
Aug 2018825
Jul 2018883
Jun 2018871
May 20181,000
Apr 2018990
Mar 2018940
Feb 2018900
Jan 20181,140
Dec 20171,100
Nov 20171,267
Oct 20171,225
Sept 20171,367
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,400
May 20171,283
Apr 20171,340
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,220
Jan 20171,133
Dec 20161,117
Nov 20161,010
Oct 2016829

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2455-74-retail-kg.