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Maize flour in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,864–2,573

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,767–2,870

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,864 and 2,573 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,767 and 2,870 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Mwaro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,864 and 2,573 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,767 and 2,870 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,924); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,831–2,139 1,911 1,708–2,434 2,353 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,813–2,247 1,961 1,662–2,627 2,340 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,864–2,573 2,050 1,636–3,692 2,657 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,856–2,762 2,130 1,703–4,272 2,793 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,767–2,870 2,051 1,514–4,924 2,600 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,889
Jun 20261,878
May 20261,922
Apr 20261,767
Mar 20261,893
Feb 20262,173
Jan 20262,235
Dec 20252,159
Nov 20252,101
Oct 20252,029
Sept 20252,049
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20251,929
Jun 20251,957
May 20251,970
Apr 20252,088
Mar 20252,325
Feb 20252,652
Jan 20252,796
Dec 20243,250
Nov 20242,694
Oct 20242,361
Sept 20242,067
Aug 20242,205
Jul 20241,789
Jun 20241,827
May 20241,923
Apr 20241,978
Mar 20241,940
Feb 20242,080
Jan 20242,219
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,258
Oct 20232,200
Sept 20232,218
Aug 20232,100
Jul 20232,050
Jun 20231,979
May 20232,000
Apr 20232,050
Mar 20232,025
Feb 20232,175
Dec 20222,276
Nov 20222,226
Oct 20221,878
Sept 20221,719
Aug 20221,732
May 20221,279
Apr 20221,235
Mar 20221,333
Feb 20221,367
Jan 20221,433
Oct 20211,267
Jul 20211,033
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,119
Mar 20211,227
Feb 20211,283
Jan 20211,244
Dec 20201,200
Nov 20201,161
Oct 20201,000
Sept 20201,170
Aug 20201,071
Jul 20201,043
Jun 20201,150
Mar 20201,075
Feb 20201,400
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,460
Oct 20191,183
Aug 20191,000
Jul 20191,117
Jun 2019833
May 20191,040
Mar 20191,017
Feb 2019783
Jan 20191,080
Dec 20181,033
Nov 2018967
Oct 2018860
Sept 2018840
Aug 2018933
Jul 2018900
Jun 2018871
May 2018967
Apr 2018980
Mar 20181,080
Feb 20181,000
Jan 20181,080
Dec 20171,250
Nov 20171,367
Oct 20171,375
Sept 20171,433
Aug 20171,425
Jul 20171,350
Jun 20171,425
May 20171,350
Apr 20171,340
Mar 20171,380
Feb 20171,520
Jan 20171,500
Dec 20161,492
Nov 20161,360
Oct 20161,186

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2455-76-retail-kg.