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Oil (vegetable) in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

16,131–23,003

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

15,428–24,134

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 16,131 and 23,003 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 15,428 and 24,134 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Mwaro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 16,131 and 23,003 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 15,428 and 24,134 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 32,203); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,751–20,342 17,868 15,224–20,926 19,394 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 15,265–20,457 17,716 15,148–24,336 18,893 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 16,131–23,003 18,093 15,490–27,611 21,394 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 15,583–22,653 17,915 14,809–24,836 19,887 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 15,428–24,134 18,150 13,774–32,203 20,473 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202618,556
Jun 202620,111
May 202618,333
Apr 202621,000
Mar 202617,564
Feb 202619,714
Jan 202622,118
Dec 202519,471
Nov 202521,444
Oct 202520,292
Sept 202517,413
Aug 202517,400
Jul 202517,059
Jun 202518,065
May 202519,550
Apr 202518,350
Mar 202520,917
Feb 202517,159
Jan 202518,208
Dec 202416,000
Nov 202415,941
Oct 202413,843
Sept 202412,944
Aug 202413,250
Jul 202412,222
Jun 202412,146
May 202411,452
Apr 202410,778
Mar 202411,236
Feb 202410,400
Jan 202411,771
Dec 202311,000
Nov 202313,000
Oct 20239,688
Sept 202310,462
Aug 202312,000
Jul 202310,833
Jun 20239,848
May 202311,779
Apr 202311,750
Mar 20239,553
Feb 202310,969
Dec 202210,439
Nov 202210,676
Oct 20228,889
Sept 20229,792
Aug 202210,647
May 20228,178
Apr 20226,942
Mar 20227,333
Feb 20227,167
Jan 20227,167
Oct 20217,500
Jul 20217,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,344
Mar 20216,354
Feb 20216,833
Jan 20215,589
Dec 20204,815
Nov 20205,956
Oct 20206,000
Sept 20206,033
Aug 20205,521
Jul 20205,921
Jun 20206,250
Mar 20205,875
Feb 20206,250
Jan 20206,000
Dec 20196,100
Nov 20196,400
Oct 20195,583
Sept 20196,250
Aug 20196,125
Jul 20196,000
Jun 20195,333
May 20196,000
Mar 20195,083
Feb 20194,250
Jan 20195,100
Dec 20185,333
Nov 20185,167
Oct 20185,100
Sept 20185,400
Aug 20185,917
Jul 20185,750
Jun 20186,167
May 20186,417
Apr 20186,800
Mar 20187,000
Feb 20186,000
Jan 20184,250

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2455-96-retail-kg.