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Food basket in Mwaro

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,782–37,806

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,104–42,294

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,222 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,782 and 37,806 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,104 and 42,294 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mwaro: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,222 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,782 and 37,806 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,104 and 42,294 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 55,756); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,724–33,343 30,882 27,465–34,937
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,163–34,568 30,833 26,795–38,034
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,782–37,806 31,285 26,469–42,849
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,496–39,352 31,254 25,565–51,228
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,104–42,294 31,473 25,062–55,756
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202630,222
Jun 202631,835
May 202637,033
Apr 202633,030
Mar 202632,727
Feb 202631,806
Jan 202630,643
Dec 202531,346
Nov 202530,324
Oct 202532,750
Sept 202531,819
Aug 202532,518
Jul 202532,538
Jun 202532,778
May 202533,141
Apr 202533,623
Mar 202532,896
Feb 202531,664
Jan 202529,486
Dec 202431,111
Nov 202431,649
Oct 202431,193
Sept 202430,213
Aug 202430,327
Jul 202428,643
Jun 202428,710
May 202431,560
Apr 202432,941
Mar 202432,622
Feb 202431,069
Jan 202431,830
Dec 202332,985
Nov 202330,729
Oct 202331,432
Sept 202332,018
Aug 202331,245
Jul 202331,159
Jun 202330,684
May 202332,566
Apr 202333,867
Mar 202331,331
Feb 202330,286
Dec 202223,906
Nov 202223,157
Oct 202220,180
Sept 202220,658
Aug 202220,233
May 202219,174
Apr 202218,040
Mar 202217,524
Feb 202216,828
Jan 202216,803
Oct 202116,285
Jul 202116,202
Apr 202115,581
Mar 202116,084
Feb 202115,408
Jan 202115,108
Dec 202014,750
Nov 202014,662
Oct 202012,576
Sept 202012,713
Aug 202012,803
Jul 202012,402
Jun 202012,779
Mar 202012,348
Feb 202012,309
Jan 202010,964
Dec 201911,250
Oct 201910,493
Aug 201911,374
Jul 201911,590
Jun 201911,230
May 201912,551
Mar 201912,467
Feb 20199,318
Jan 201912,506
Dec 201811,970
Nov 201812,818
Oct 201812,954
Sept 201813,415
Aug 201814,009
Jul 201814,653
Jun 201814,368
May 201815,843
Apr 201815,499
Mar 201814,714
Feb 201814,214
Jan 201817,159

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620