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Oil (palm) in Nyabihanga

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,634–11,370

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,421–11,907

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,634 and 11,370 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,421 and 11,907 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Nyabihanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,634 and 11,370 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,421 and 11,907 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,111); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,041–11,121 10,075 8,767–11,343 11,079 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,784–10,855 9,581 8,358–11,985 10,553 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,634–11,370 9,468 8,179–14,085 10,310 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,422–11,399 9,398 7,842–13,235 10,150 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,421–11,907 9,519 7,609–15,111 10,400 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,167
Jun 202610,000
May 202610,417
Mar 20269,583
Feb 202610,321
Jan 202610,353
Dec 20259,853
Nov 202510,438
Oct 202510,588
Sept 202511,442
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,821
Jun 202511,312
May 202511,323
Apr 202511,406
Mar 202510,150
Feb 20258,810
Jan 20257,550
Dec 20246,138
Nov 20246,809
Oct 20246,275
Sept 20246,350
Aug 20246,344
Jul 20246,146
Jun 20246,467
May 20246,206
Apr 20246,033
Mar 20246,050
Feb 20245,600
Jan 20245,650
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20235,800
Oct 20236,000
Sept 20236,538
Aug 20235,769
Jul 20236,136
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,417
Apr 20235,088
Mar 20234,800
Feb 20234,775
Dec 20224,600
Nov 20224,400
Oct 20224,500
Sept 20224,750
Aug 20225,217
May 20224,767
Apr 20224,300
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20214,000
Apr 20212,750
Mar 20212,733
Feb 20212,600
Jan 20212,583
Dec 20202,352
Nov 20202,387
Oct 20202,628
Sept 20202,344
Aug 20202,291
Jul 20202,713
Jun 20202,685
Mar 20202,433
Feb 20202,467
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,543
Nov 20192,580
Oct 20192,340
Sept 20192,600
Aug 20192,775
Jul 20192,867
Jun 20192,667
May 20192,750
Mar 20192,375
Feb 20192,333
Jan 20192,200
Dec 20182,240
Nov 20182,233
Oct 20182,580
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,300
Jul 20183,400
Jun 20183,283
May 20182,800
Apr 20182,600
Mar 20182,175
Feb 20182,350

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2457-62-retail-kg.