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Cassava flour in Nyabihanga

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,467–2,367

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,517–2,663

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,467 and 2,367 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,517 and 2,663 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Nyabihanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,467 and 2,367 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,517 and 2,663 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,955); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,479–1,875 1,676 1,331–2,163 1,712 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,453–2,038 1,680 1,223–2,658 1,773 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,467–2,367 1,773 1,302–3,211 2,164 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,463–2,525 1,807 1,331–3,459 2,208 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,517–2,663 1,810 1,269–3,955 2,139 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,733
Jun 20261,650
May 20261,767
Mar 20261,700
Feb 20261,726
Jan 20261,580
Dec 20251,709
Nov 20251,653
Oct 20251,593
Sept 20251,652
Aug 20251,600
Jul 20251,818
Jun 20251,956
May 20251,626
Apr 20251,573
Mar 20251,530
Feb 20251,506
Jan 20251,761
Dec 20242,009
Nov 20241,815
Oct 20241,627
Sept 20241,400
Aug 20241,512
Jul 20241,542
Jun 20241,689
May 20241,827
Apr 20241,771
Mar 20241,900
Feb 20241,600
Jan 20241,950
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,650
Oct 20231,500
Sept 20231,608
Aug 20231,546
Jul 20231,886
Jun 20231,764
May 20231,962
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,850
Feb 20231,700
Dec 20221,400
Nov 20221,350
Oct 20221,150
Sept 20221,075
Aug 20221,083
May 20221,166
Apr 20221,033
Mar 20221,025
Feb 20221,048
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021900
Apr 2021958
Mar 20211,000
Feb 2021988
Jan 2021908
Dec 2020888
Nov 2020814
Oct 2020625
Sept 2020604
Aug 2020530
Jul 2020595
Jun 2020670
Mar 2020567
Feb 2020508
Jan 2020583
Dec 2019614
Oct 2019430
Aug 2019512
Jul 2019480
Jun 2019600
May 2019550
Mar 2019550
Feb 2019417
Jan 2019600
Dec 2018540
Nov 2018558
Oct 2018550
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018620
Jul 2018692
Jun 2018783
May 2018880
Apr 2018817
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018975
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,200
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,133
Dec 20161,110
Nov 2016989
Oct 2016860

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2457-74-retail-kg.