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Maize flour in Nyabihanga

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,763–2,490

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,695–2,531

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,763 and 2,490 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,695 and 2,531 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Nyabihanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,763 and 2,490 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,695 and 2,531 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,730–2,130 1,920 1,575–2,539 2,459 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,716–2,346 2,008 1,624–2,921 2,566 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,763–2,490 2,080 1,604–2,783 2,891 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,749–2,577 2,120 1,548–3,163 3,096 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,695–2,531 2,072 1,555–2,587 2,997 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,812
Jun 20261,950
May 20262,000
Mar 20261,813
Feb 20262,048
Jan 20262,180
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20252,088
Oct 20252,062
Sept 20251,970
Aug 20251,767
Jul 20251,910
Jun 20251,769
May 20251,629
Apr 20251,831
Mar 20251,660
Feb 20252,429
Jan 20252,824
Dec 20242,878
Nov 20242,376
Oct 20242,157
Sept 20242,075
Aug 20242,021
Jul 20241,708
Jun 20241,578
May 20241,600
Apr 20241,817
Mar 20242,000
Jan 20242,167
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,200
Oct 20232,488
Sept 20232,508
Aug 20232,108
Jul 20232,000
Jun 20231,927
May 20231,888
Apr 20232,012
Mar 20232,050
Feb 20232,000
Dec 20222,300
Nov 20222,200
Oct 20221,750
Sept 20221,550
Aug 20221,450
May 20221,217
Apr 20221,100
Mar 20221,275
Feb 20221,295
Jan 20221,400
Oct 20211,200
Apr 2021983
Mar 20211,033
Feb 20211,200
Jan 20211,242
Dec 20201,223
Nov 20201,200
Oct 20201,122
Sept 2020994
Aug 2020830
Jul 2020811
Jun 2020870
Mar 2020720
Feb 2020717
Jan 20201,433
Dec 20191,357
Oct 2019980
Aug 2019750
Jul 2019980
Jun 2019633
May 2019675
Mar 2019750
Feb 2019833
Jan 20191,000
Dec 2018900
Nov 2018867
Oct 2018820
Sept 2018820
Aug 2018760
Jul 2018817
Jun 2018833
May 2018880
Apr 2018767
Mar 2018875
Feb 2018875
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,150
Jan 20171,367
Dec 20161,340
Nov 20161,214
Oct 20161,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2457-76-retail-kg.