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Oil (vegetable) in Nyabihanga

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,630–21,626

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,074–22,121

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,630 and 21,626 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,074 and 22,121 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Nyabihanga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,630 and 21,626 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,074 and 22,121 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,510–19,024 16,704 14,100–20,841 17,215 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,618–20,460 16,641 13,385–21,696 16,662 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,630–21,626 16,724 13,228–24,913 18,771 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,447–21,943 16,744 13,514–25,003 19,060 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,074–22,121 16,647 12,665–27,250 19,032 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,125
Jun 202618,000
May 202648,167Data error
Mar 202617,183
Feb 202617,393
Jan 202617,882
Dec 202518,824
Nov 202519,156
Oct 202516,750
Sept 202516,928
Aug 202520,333
Jul 202517,821
Jun 202515,200
May 202515,440
Apr 202516,542
Mar 202515,050
Feb 202515,000
Jan 202515,147
Dec 202414,844
Nov 202414,735
Oct 202411,725
Sept 202410,375
Aug 202410,441
Jul 20249,917
Jun 202410,000
May 20249,844
Apr 20249,250
Mar 20249,250
Feb 20249,000
Jan 20249,125
Dec 202310,000
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,750
Sept 20238,359
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20238,205
Jun 20238,727
May 20239,125
Apr 202310,125
Mar 202310,809
Feb 202310,875
Dec 202210,000
Nov 20229,750
Oct 20229,500
Sept 202210,000
Aug 20227,000
May 20228,106
Apr 20227,833
Mar 20226,325
Feb 20227,188
Jan 20228,500
Oct 20215,500
Apr 20215,583
Mar 20215,500
Feb 20215,500
Jan 20215,417
Dec 20205,117
Nov 20205,311
Oct 20205,306
Sept 20205,088
Aug 20204,957
Jul 20205,065
Jun 20205,200
Mar 20204,850
Feb 20204,800
Jan 20204,900
Dec 20194,800
Nov 20195,000
Oct 20194,400
Sept 20194,600
Aug 20195,250
Jul 20195,500
Jun 20194,833
May 20195,000
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20194,875
Dec 20184,800
Nov 20184,500
Oct 20183,700
Sept 20184,700
Aug 20184,800
Jul 20184,000
Jun 20184,667
May 20185,100
Apr 20185,000
Mar 20184,450
Feb 20186,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2457-96-retail-kg.