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Food basket in Nyabihanga

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

29,633–42,453

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

29,635–48,540

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,585 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,633 and 42,453 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 29,635 and 48,540 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nyabihanga: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,585 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,633 and 42,453 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 29,635 and 48,540 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 67,027); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,324–35,043 32,104 27,353–38,595
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 29,032–37,412 32,152 26,187–45,357
Nov 2026
Next month		 29,633–42,453 34,103 27,462–52,542
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 29,505–44,118 34,231 27,401–60,758
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 29,635–48,540 35,022 26,914–67,027
Cost history (86 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202632,585
Jun 202632,010
May 202636,488
Mar 202632,022
Feb 202632,512
Jan 202630,576
Dec 202531,736
Nov 202531,247
Oct 202531,045
Sept 202532,093
Aug 202531,500
Jul 202534,047
Jun 202535,207
May 202531,497
Apr 202531,962
Mar 202530,808
Feb 202529,735
Jan 202531,924
Dec 202434,614
Nov 202432,330
Oct 202429,619
Sept 202426,402
Aug 202427,283
Jul 202426,978
Jun 202429,109
May 202430,966
Apr 202430,498
Mar 202432,374
Feb 202428,824
Jan 202432,248
Dec 202333,540
Nov 202328,482
Oct 202326,955
Sept 202328,304
Aug 202326,785
Jul 202330,487
Jun 202328,249
May 202332,710
Apr 202333,698
Mar 202331,246
Feb 202329,174
Dec 202223,754
Nov 202222,926
Oct 202219,785
Sept 202218,742
Aug 202218,789
May 202220,182
Apr 202218,007
Mar 202217,349
Feb 202217,520
Jan 202218,024
Oct 202115,720
Apr 202116,007
Mar 202116,466
Feb 202116,029
Jan 202115,262
Dec 202015,421
Nov 202014,446
Oct 202012,123
Sept 202011,454
Aug 202010,188
Jul 202010,974
Jun 202011,735
Mar 202010,789
Feb 20209,962
Jan 202010,756
Dec 201911,209
Oct 20198,521
Aug 20199,415
Jul 20199,430
Jun 201910,270
May 201910,568
Mar 201910,444
Feb 20198,320
Jan 201911,013
Dec 201810,294
Nov 201810,401
Oct 201810,360
Sept 20189,798
Aug 201811,265
Jul 201812,176
Jun 201813,150
May 201814,616
Apr 201813,514
Mar 201812,631
Feb 201814,626

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620