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Oil (palm) in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,793–11,432

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,601–12,092

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,793 and 11,432 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,601 and 12,092 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Nyabikere: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,793 and 11,432 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,601 and 12,092 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,532); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,453–10,873 9,448 7,983–11,561 10,451 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,699–10,975 8,932 7,148–12,099 9,211 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,793–11,432 9,067 7,299–13,608 9,509 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,668–11,622 8,976 6,937–13,705 9,597 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,601–12,092 9,234 6,438–15,532 10,367 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,333
Jun 202610,000
May 202610,125
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20268,271
Feb 20268,333
Jan 20269,576
Dec 20259,725
Nov 202510,000
Oct 20259,421
Sept 202510,783
Aug 202511,912
Jul 202511,176
Jun 202510,958
May 202511,692
Apr 202510,444
Mar 202510,938
Feb 20257,810
Jan 20257,062
Dec 20246,196
Nov 20245,739
Oct 20245,734
Sept 20246,250
Aug 20247,606
Jul 20246,750
Jun 20246,000
May 20246,722
Apr 20246,150
Mar 20245,500
Feb 20245,448
Jan 20245,825
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20235,700
Oct 20235,911
Sept 20236,275
Aug 20235,800
Jul 20235,861
Jun 20235,873
May 20235,424
Apr 20235,152
Mar 20234,961
Feb 20234,683
Dec 20224,208
Nov 20224,187
Oct 20224,162
Sept 20224,937
Aug 20224,931
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,577
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,956
Feb 20223,712
Jan 20223,650
Oct 20213,200
May 20212,900
Apr 20212,698
Mar 20212,515
Feb 20212,600
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,267
Nov 20202,300
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,194
Aug 20202,267
Jul 20202,300
Jun 20202,700
Mar 20202,360
Feb 20202,280
Jan 20202,333
Dec 20192,343
Nov 20192,467
Oct 20192,067
Sept 20192,433
Aug 20192,867
Jul 20192,933
Jun 20193,067
May 20192,850
Mar 20192,360
Feb 20192,333
Jan 20192,167
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20185,300Data error
Oct 20181,967
Sept 20182,633
Aug 20183,033
Jul 20183,533
Jun 20183,333
May 20182,767
Apr 20182,567
Mar 20182,450
Feb 20182,300
Jan 20182,275

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2458-62-retail-kg.