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Maize (white) in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,232–1,964

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,197–2,158

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,232 and 1,964 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,197 and 2,158 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Nyabikere: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,232 and 1,964 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,197 and 2,158 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,397); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,186–1,550 1,330 1,087–1,869 1,654 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,205–1,696 1,393 1,086–2,530 1,750 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,232–1,964 1,441 1,104–3,592 1,921 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,249–2,052 1,497 1,111–3,731 2,014 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,197–2,158 1,456 1,073–4,397 1,914 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,333
Jun 20261,075
May 20261,162
Apr 2026900
Mar 20261,079
Feb 20261,567
Jan 20261,585
Dec 20251,383
Nov 20251,325
Oct 20251,453
Sept 20251,326
Aug 20251,376
Jul 20251,329
Jun 20251,299
May 20251,154
Apr 20251,033
Mar 20251,133
Feb 20251,295
Jan 20252,099
Dec 20242,096
Nov 20241,907
Oct 20241,806
Sept 20241,600
Aug 20241,259
Jul 20241,408
Jun 20241,183
May 20241,156
Apr 20241,200
Mar 20241,630
Feb 20241,382
Jan 20241,700
Dec 20231,650
Nov 20231,700
Oct 20231,678
Sept 20231,625
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,583
Jun 20231,505
May 20231,435
Apr 20231,366
Mar 20231,524
Feb 20231,733
Dec 20221,600
Nov 20221,462
Oct 20221,403
Sept 20221,330
Aug 20221,292
Jun 2022875
May 2022857
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022697
Feb 2022600
Jan 2022800
Oct 2021950
May 2021680
Apr 2021637
Mar 2021787
Feb 2021850
Jan 2021933
Dec 2020792
Nov 2020825
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020683
Aug 2020612
Jul 2020650
Jun 2020600
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020414
Jan 20201,067
Dec 20191,157
Oct 2019800
Aug 2019600
Jul 2019783
Jun 2019433
May 2019367
Mar 2019330
Feb 2019542
Jan 2019660
Dec 2018583
Nov 2018625
Oct 2018575
Sept 2018483
Aug 2018508
Jul 2018480
Jun 2018400
May 2018442
Apr 2018367
Mar 2018550
Feb 2018700
Jan 2018838
Dec 20171,075
Nov 20171,100
Oct 20171,120
Sept 20171,050
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,033
Apr 2017900
Mar 2017800
Feb 20171,175
Jan 20171,225
Dec 20161,200
Nov 2016967
Oct 2016775

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2458-67-retail-kg.