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Cassava flour in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,043–1,724

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,023–1,918

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,043 and 1,724 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,023 and 1,918 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Nyabikere: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,043 and 1,724 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,023 and 1,918 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,254); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,083–1,451 1,275 1,046–1,618 1,326 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,028–1,508 1,267 935–2,014 1,259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,043–1,724 1,252 951–2,381 1,490 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,004–1,807 1,249 974–2,879 1,449 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,023–1,918 1,280 993–3,254 1,435 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,350
Jun 20261,000
May 20261,250
Apr 20261,233
Mar 20261,297
Feb 20261,300
Jan 20261,285
Dec 20251,063
Nov 20251,000
Oct 20251,089
Sept 20251,078
Aug 20251,171
Jul 20251,406
Jun 20251,384
May 20251,200
Apr 20251,367
Mar 20251,235
Feb 20251,064
Jan 20251,275
Dec 20241,259
Nov 20241,454
Oct 20241,430
Sept 20241,375
Aug 20241,422
Jul 20241,500
Jun 20241,383
May 20241,478
Apr 20241,525
Mar 20241,855
Feb 20241,633
Jan 20241,575
Dec 20231,650
Nov 20231,650
Oct 20231,567
Sept 20231,500
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,789
Jun 20231,700
May 20231,906
Apr 20231,809
Mar 20231,842
Feb 20231,567
Dec 20221,297
Nov 20221,200
Oct 2022991
Sept 2022883
Aug 20221,058
Jun 20221,000
May 2022990
Apr 2022992
Mar 2022800
Feb 2022931
Jan 2022950
Oct 2021825
May 2021850
Apr 2021899
Mar 2021958
Feb 2021900
Jan 2021833
Dec 2020850
Nov 2020767
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020648
Aug 2020692
Jul 2020683
Jun 2020783
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020580
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019417
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019408
Jun 2019600
May 2019533
Mar 2019460
Feb 2019483
Jan 2019475
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018458
Aug 2018550
Jul 2018667
Jun 2018717
May 2018733
Apr 2018817
Mar 2018700
Feb 2018850
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017900
Nov 2017983
Oct 2017920
Sept 20171,038
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,200
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,067
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016888
Oct 2016700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2458-74-retail-kg.