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Maize flour in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,682–2,334

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,627–2,617

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,682 and 2,334 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,627 and 2,617 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Nyabikere: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,682 and 2,334 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,627 and 2,617 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,554); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,620–1,998 1,766 1,460–2,159 2,174 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,635–2,107 1,835 1,435–2,319 2,231 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,682–2,334 1,891 1,411–2,872 2,509 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,690–2,508 1,969 1,435–3,689 2,602 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,627–2,617 1,907 1,343–4,554 2,454 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,767
Jun 20261,275
May 20261,538
Apr 20261,433
Mar 20261,776
Feb 20262,167
Jan 20262,148
Dec 20251,973
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20251,963
Sept 20251,939
Aug 20251,897
Jul 20251,816
Jun 20251,849
May 20251,485
Apr 20251,517
Mar 20251,623
Feb 20251,752
Jan 20252,438
Dec 20242,539
Nov 20242,304
Oct 20242,200
Sept 20242,000
Aug 20241,772
Jul 20241,704
Jun 20241,617
May 20241,733
Apr 20241,600
Mar 20241,960
Feb 20241,880
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,033
Sept 20232,000
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20231,844
Jun 20231,736
May 20231,759
Apr 20231,672
Mar 20231,881
Feb 20231,983
Dec 20221,903
Nov 20221,861
Oct 20221,615
Sept 20221,530
Aug 20221,506
Jun 20221,150
May 20221,056
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022917
Feb 2022888
Jan 20221,150
Oct 20211,175
May 2021900
Apr 2021802
Mar 2021815
Feb 2021950
Jan 20211,167
Dec 20201,033
Nov 20201,025
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020869
Aug 2020775
Jul 2020800
Jun 2020783
Mar 2020800
Feb 2020720
Jan 20201,233
Dec 20191,314
Oct 20191,042
Aug 2019800
Jul 2019933
Jun 2019633
May 2019567
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019633
Jan 2019867
Dec 2018880
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018733
Sept 2018667
Aug 2018617
Jul 2018717
Jun 2018600
May 2018667
Apr 2018600
Mar 2018650
Feb 2018838
Jan 2018975
Dec 20171,200
Nov 20171,283
Oct 20171,280
Sept 20171,262
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,267
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,167
Apr 20171,100
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,400
Jan 20171,400
Dec 20161,400
Nov 20161,162
Oct 20161,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2458-76-retail-kg.