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Oil (vegetable) in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,443–18,972

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,288–20,858

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,443 and 18,972 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,288 and 20,858 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Nyabikere: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,443 and 18,972 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,288 and 20,858 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,316); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,756–17,361 15,398 12,584–18,566 16,572 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,751–18,481 15,845 12,925–21,081 17,922 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,443–18,972 15,491 13,155–22,778 17,375 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,549–20,385 15,765 12,413–25,936 17,724 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,288–20,858 15,748 11,673–29,316 18,004 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,333
Jun 202614,000
May 202615,875
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202613,979
Feb 202616,667
Jan 202615,848
Dec 202515,137
Nov 202515,500
Oct 202516,158
Sept 202517,696
Aug 202518,250
Jul 202516,686
Jun 202516,073
May 202514,538
Apr 202518,000
Mar 202515,979
Feb 202516,143
Jan 202515,104
Dec 202415,150
Nov 202412,435
Oct 202411,740
Sept 202411,917
Aug 202413,037
Jul 202413,750
Jun 202412,500
May 202410,833
Apr 20249,750
Mar 20249,925
Feb 20249,815
Jan 20249,125
Dec 20239,500
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,467
Sept 20238,000
Aug 20239,667
Jul 20239,667
Jun 20239,182
May 20239,912
Apr 20238,967
Mar 20239,014
Feb 20239,167
Dec 20229,972
Nov 202210,239
Oct 20229,176
Sept 20228,275
Aug 202210,271
Jun 20229,500
May 20226,979
Apr 20227,692
Mar 20227,241
Feb 20228,375
Jan 20226,125
Oct 20219,000
May 20215,500
Apr 20215,281
Mar 20215,733
Feb 20216,000
Jan 20214,750
Dec 20204,950
Nov 20205,050
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,725
Aug 20204,950
Jul 20205,167
Jun 20205,133
Mar 20204,300
Feb 20204,100
Jan 20204,333
Dec 20194,529
Nov 20194,583
Oct 20194,833
Sept 20194,350
Aug 20194,833
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,900
May 20195,117
Mar 20194,960
Feb 20194,767
Jan 20194,867
Dec 20184,560
Nov 20184,700
Oct 20184,933
Sept 20184,833
Aug 20184,817
Jul 20184,833
Jun 20184,600
May 20184,583
Apr 20184,783
Mar 20184,000
Feb 20185,250
Jan 20185,625

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2458-96-retail-kg.