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Food basket in Nyabikere

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

23,781–34,600

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

23,262–37,345

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,890 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,781 and 34,600 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,262 and 37,345 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nyabikere: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,890 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,781 and 34,600 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,262 and 37,345 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.010,00020,00030,00040,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 53,454); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 24,408–29,376 26,749 23,425–31,499
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 23,522–30,772 26,601 22,234–36,736
Nov 2026
Next month		 23,781–34,600 27,129 22,272–42,772
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 23,337–36,435 27,230 22,177–52,436
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 23,262–37,345 27,307 21,828–53,454
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202627,890
Jun 202623,310
May 202628,601
Apr 202628,510
Mar 202626,660
Feb 202626,150
Jan 202626,220
Dec 202523,865
Nov 202523,625
Oct 202524,410
Sept 202524,957
Aug 202526,798
Jul 202528,899
Jun 202528,213
May 202526,151
Apr 202529,007
Mar 202528,466
Feb 202523,607
Jan 202526,517
Dec 202425,512
Nov 202427,141
Oct 202426,416
Sept 202425,762
Aug 202426,894
Jul 202426,362
Jun 202424,400
May 202426,932
Apr 202428,124
Mar 202430,663
Feb 202428,359
Jan 202427,149
Dec 202328,440
Nov 202328,683
Oct 202327,599
Sept 202326,875
Aug 202327,522
Jul 202329,031
Jun 202327,610
May 202332,611
Apr 202331,289
Mar 202331,676
Feb 202327,222
Dec 202222,520
Nov 202220,740
Oct 202217,556
Sept 202216,394
Aug 202218,184
Jun 202217,202
May 202217,463
Apr 202217,548
Mar 202214,199
Feb 202215,537
Jan 202215,538
Oct 202113,998
May 202114,541
Apr 202115,042
Mar 202115,706
Feb 202114,844
Jan 202113,636
Dec 202014,644
Nov 202013,547
Oct 202011,196
Sept 202011,532
Aug 202012,099
Jul 202011,677
Jun 202012,853
Mar 202010,040
Feb 202010,621
Jan 202010,370
Dec 201910,822
Oct 20198,226
Aug 20199,403
Jul 20198,724
Jun 201910,576
May 201910,256
Mar 20199,056
Feb 20199,150
Jan 20199,085
Dec 20189,684
Oct 20189,457
Sept 20189,057
Aug 201810,223
Jul 201811,968
Jun 201812,460
May 201812,449
Apr 201813,116
Mar 201811,576
Feb 201813,317
Jan 201813,630

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620