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Oil (palm) in Nyagasasa

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,343–10,391

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,117–11,102

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,343 and 10,391 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,117 and 11,102 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Nyagasasa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,343 and 10,391 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,117 and 11,102 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,899); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,881–9,664 8,511 7,686–10,077 9,297 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,519–9,995 8,396 7,248–12,091 9,379 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,343–10,391 8,229 6,822–13,462 8,910 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,296–10,671 8,223 6,347–15,823 8,881 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,117–11,102 8,272 6,532–16,899 9,056 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jul 20268,333
Jun 20268,593
May 20268,637
Apr 20268,500
Mar 20268,900
Feb 20268,905
Jan 20269,069
Dec 20259,396
Nov 20259,802
Oct 20259,146
Sept 20259,611
Aug 202510,333
Jul 20257,500
Jun 20259,311
May 20259,676
Apr 202510,587
Mar 20258,882
Feb 20258,048
Jan 20257,526
Dec 20246,389
Nov 20245,953
Oct 20245,909
Sept 20245,844
Aug 20246,179
Jul 20245,375
Jun 20245,667
May 20245,764
Apr 20245,667
Mar 20245,667
Feb 20245,667
Jan 20246,200
Dec 20235,667
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20236,233
Sept 20236,000
Aug 20235,772
Jul 20235,711
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,583
Apr 20235,333
Mar 20234,921
Feb 20235,141
Jan 20234,500
Dec 20224,023
Nov 20225,025
Oct 20225,547
Sept 20225,583
Aug 20225,750
Jul 20225,250
May 20223,750
Apr 20224,250
Mar 20224,125
Feb 20224,250
Jan 20224,000
Oct 20213,833
Sept 20213,625
May 20213,500
Apr 20213,254
Mar 20213,333
Feb 20213,500
Jan 20213,333
Dec 20203,435
Nov 20203,306
Sept 20203,417
Aug 20203,133
Jul 20203,323
Jun 20203,365
Mar 20203,000
Feb 20203,000
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20193,500
Nov 20193,200
Oct 20193,417
Sept 20193,167
Aug 20192,917
Jul 20193,500
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,167
Mar 20192,700
Feb 20192,000
Jan 20192,700
Dec 20182,533
Nov 20182,500
Oct 20182,900
Sept 20183,417
Aug 20184,000
Jul 20184,250
Jun 20183,875
May 20183,700
Apr 20183,280
Mar 20182,680
Feb 20182,800
Jan 20182,333

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2459-62-retail-kg.