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Cassava flour in Nyagasasa

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,296–1,902

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,321–2,068

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,296 and 1,902 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,321 and 2,068 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Nyagasasa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,296 and 1,902 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,321 and 2,068 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,352–1,623 1,485 1,261–1,698 1,707 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,320–1,700 1,485 1,221–1,783 1,628 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,296–1,902 1,495 1,176–2,309 1,821 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,251–1,916 1,484 1,106–2,430 1,720 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,321–2,068 1,541 1,116–2,388 1,748 –
Price history (107 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,467
Jul 20261,567
Jun 20261,567
May 20261,514
Apr 20261,544
Mar 20261,550
Feb 20261,545
Jan 20261,456
Dec 20251,298
Nov 20251,400
Oct 20251,400
Sept 20251,456
Aug 20251,483
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,428
May 20251,362
Apr 20251,426
Mar 20251,367
Feb 20251,355
Jan 20251,438
Dec 20241,820
Nov 20241,607
Oct 20241,533
Sept 20241,384
Aug 20241,364
Jul 20241,617
Jun 20241,635
May 20241,767
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20241,750
Feb 20241,950
Jan 20241,850
Dec 20231,600
Nov 20231,833
Oct 20231,802
Sept 20231,815
Aug 20231,791
Jul 20231,840
Jun 20232,133
May 20231,967
Apr 20231,800
Mar 20231,823
Feb 20231,730
Jan 20231,633
Dec 20221,300
Nov 20221,300
Oct 20221,216
Sept 20221,150
Aug 20221,200
Jul 20221,100
May 20221,088
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,075
Feb 20221,050
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021967
Sept 2021900
May 2021850
Apr 2021860
Mar 2021883
Feb 2021867
Jan 2021812
Dec 2020841
Nov 2020772
Sept 2020662
Aug 2020663
Jul 2020686
Jun 2020700
Mar 2020650
Feb 2020658
Jan 2020650
Dec 2019592
Oct 2019483
Aug 2019483
Jul 2019480
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Mar 2019510
Feb 2019550
Jan 2019510
Dec 2018533
Nov 2018557
Oct 2018470
Sept 20181,325Data error
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018562
Jun 2018800
May 2018900
Apr 2018880
Mar 2018870
Feb 2018850
Jan 2018883
Dec 20171,000
Nov 20171,150
Oct 20171,100
Sept 20171,067
Aug 20171,150
Jul 20171,160
Jun 20171,150
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,267
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,025
Dec 20161,021
Nov 2016875
Oct 2016783

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2459-74-retail-kg.