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Maize flour in Nyagasasa

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,729–2,412

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,699–2,466

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,729 and 2,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,699 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Nyagasasa: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,729 and 2,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,699 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,746–2,033 1,842 1,678–2,330 2,263 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,709–2,174 1,910 1,610–2,414 2,446 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,729–2,412 1,955 1,568–3,435 2,651 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,738–2,502 2,019 1,613–3,560 2,715 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,699–2,466 1,979 1,560–3,023 2,610 –
Price history (107 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,817
Jul 20261,767
Jun 20261,767
May 20261,660
Apr 20261,714
Mar 20262,070
Feb 20262,193
Jan 20262,190
Dec 20252,017
Nov 20252,121
Oct 20252,126
Sept 20251,906
Aug 20251,917
Jul 20251,800
Jun 20251,844
May 20251,768
Apr 20251,852
Mar 20251,965
Feb 20252,540
Jan 20252,837
Dec 20243,313
Nov 20242,730
Oct 20242,297
Sept 20242,181
Aug 20242,123
Jul 20241,783
Jun 20241,706
May 20241,614
Apr 20241,767
Mar 20241,833
Feb 20241,933
Jan 20241,980
Dec 20232,033
Nov 20232,067
Oct 20232,188
Sept 20232,115
Aug 20232,095
Jul 20232,000
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,867
Apr 20232,050
Mar 20232,228
Feb 20232,263
Jan 20232,233
Dec 20222,221
Nov 20222,200
Oct 20222,089
Sept 20221,700
Aug 20221,650
Jul 20221,500
May 20221,250
Apr 20221,175
Mar 20221,300
Feb 20221,225
Jan 20221,375
Oct 20211,100
Sept 20211,075
May 20211,050
Apr 2021976
Mar 20211,050
Feb 20211,058
Jan 20211,033
Dec 20201,087
Nov 20201,100
Sept 20201,000
Aug 2020974
Jul 2020984
Jun 2020966
Mar 2020858
Feb 20201,142
Jan 20201,433
Dec 20191,350
Oct 20191,012
Aug 2019917
Jul 2019950
Jun 2019617
May 2019692
Mar 2019740
Feb 2019900
Jan 2019840
Dec 2018792
Nov 2018779
Oct 2018620
Sept 2018700
Aug 2018700
Jul 2018700
Jun 2018700
May 2018700
Apr 2018720
Mar 2018820
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018867
Dec 20171,000
Nov 20171,100
Oct 20171,250
Sept 20171,267
Aug 20171,250
Jul 20171,290
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,400
Mar 20171,450
Feb 20171,467
Jan 20171,317
Dec 20161,393
Nov 20161,225
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2459-76-retail-kg.