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Food basket in Nyagasasa

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,246–36,718

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,411–40,396

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,510 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,246 and 36,718 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,411 and 40,396 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nyagasasa: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,510 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,246 and 36,718 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,411 and 40,396 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,136–31,974 29,837 26,914–33,300
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,784–33,460 30,074 26,453–35,547
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,246–36,718 30,474 25,641–41,458
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,731–38,379 30,712 24,905–49,978
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,411–40,396 31,471 24,951–48,516
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,510
Jul 202631,150
Jun 202631,329
May 202632,630
Apr 202631,923
Mar 202630,501
Feb 202630,344
Jan 202629,128
Dec 202527,458
Nov 202529,095
Oct 202528,511
Sept 202529,498
Aug 202530,330
Jul 202528,125
Jun 202528,738
May 202529,503
Apr 202531,364
Mar 202529,252
Feb 202528,539
Jan 202529,403
Dec 202433,708
Nov 202430,183
Oct 202428,586
Sept 202426,128
Aug 202425,599
Jul 202427,984
Jun 202428,451
May 202430,522
Apr 202432,710
Mar 202430,820
Feb 202433,610
Jan 202431,878
Dec 202328,810
Nov 202331,195
Oct 202331,336
Sept 202331,315
Aug 202330,671
Jul 202330,465
Jun 202334,420
May 202332,823
Apr 202331,790
Mar 202330,644
Feb 202329,259
Jan 202327,685
Dec 202222,559
Nov 202222,858
Oct 202221,689
Sept 202220,480
Aug 202221,068
Jul 202219,522
May 202219,238
Apr 202217,632
Mar 202218,221
Feb 202218,052
Jan 202218,390
Oct 202116,465
Sept 202115,596
May 202115,405
Apr 202115,308
Mar 202115,750
Feb 202115,755
Jan 202115,170
Dec 202015,612
Nov 202014,705
Sept 202012,858
Aug 202012,418
Jul 202012,729
Jun 202012,882
Mar 202012,150
Feb 202012,220
Jan 202011,880
Dec 201911,735
Oct 201910,272
Aug 20199,642
Jul 201910,515
Jun 20199,810
May 201910,435
Mar 20199,945
Feb 20199,780
Jan 201910,143
Dec 201810,428
Nov 201810,558
Oct 20189,765
Aug 201810,500
Jul 201811,415
Jun 201813,930
May 201815,261
Apr 201814,425
Mar 201814,017
Feb 201813,932
Jan 201814,250

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620