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Oil (palm) in Rubaho

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,413–12,150

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,382–12,853

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,413 and 12,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,382 and 12,853 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Rubaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,413 and 12,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,382 and 12,853 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,787–11,071 9,052 7,356–11,346 10,131 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,173–11,207 8,724 6,966–13,435 9,440 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,413–12,150 9,037 7,406–17,611 10,005 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,451–12,071 8,911 7,085–12,327 10,178 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,382–12,853 9,230 6,891–16,740 10,095 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,000
Jun 20269,188
May 20269,167
Apr 20269,500
Mar 20268,350
Feb 20268,975
Jan 202612,591
Dec 202510,125
Nov 202511,000
Oct 202512,065
Sept 202511,781
Aug 202514,800
Jul 202512,324
Jun 202511,000
May 202512,000
Apr 202510,975
Mar 20257,779
Feb 20257,333
Jan 20257,373
Dec 20246,801
Nov 20246,779
Oct 20246,559
Sept 20247,406
Aug 20246,765
Jul 20245,662
Jun 20245,316
May 20246,047
Apr 20243,580
Mar 20244,529
Feb 20244,295
Jan 20244,875
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20234,062
Sept 20233,962
Aug 20235,031
Jul 20234,483
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,176
Apr 20234,000
Mar 20233,708
Feb 20234,000
Jan 20234,000
Dec 20223,841
Nov 20224,206
Oct 20224,000
Sept 20224,000
Aug 20224,000
Jun 20224,000
May 20224,000
Apr 20223,500
Mar 20223,500
Feb 20223,500
Jan 20223,500
Oct 20213,500
Apr 20212,818
Mar 20212,521
Feb 20212,700
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,825
Nov 20202,502
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,606
Jul 20202,800
Jun 20202,538
Mar 20202,625
Feb 20202,733
Jan 20202,633
Dec 20192,700
Nov 20192,450
Oct 20192,380
Sept 20192,580
Aug 20193,367
Jul 20193,250
Jun 20192,733
May 20192,667
Mar 20192,600
Feb 20192,243
Jan 20192,320
Dec 20182,350
Nov 20182,067
Oct 20182,200
Sept 20182,800
Aug 20183,300
Jul 20183,450
Jun 20183,100
May 20182,860

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2460-62-retail-kg.