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Cassava flour in Rubaho

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,254–2,138

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,253–2,437

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,254 and 2,138 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,253 and 2,437 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Rubaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,254 and 2,138 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,253 and 2,437 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,117); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,284–1,817 1,538 1,110–2,247 1,547 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,238–1,906 1,540 1,087–2,698 1,547 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,254–2,138 1,507 1,052–3,221 1,733 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,242–2,294 1,552 993–3,451 1,773 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,253–2,437 1,572 1,078–4,117 1,775 –
Price history (82 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,625
Jun 20261,388
May 20261,394
Apr 20261,338
Mar 20261,468
Feb 20261,492
Jan 20261,218
Dec 20251,432
Nov 20251,089
Oct 20251,269
Sept 20251,281
Aug 20251,480
Jul 20251,521
Jun 20251,511
May 20251,373
Apr 20251,232
Mar 2025994
Feb 20251,033
Jan 20251,345
Dec 20241,567
Nov 20241,171
Oct 20241,269
Sept 20241,262
Aug 20241,171
Jul 20241,324
Jun 20241,175
May 20241,233
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,456
Feb 20241,727
Jan 20241,706
Nov 20231,300
Oct 20231,612
Sept 20231,323
Aug 20231,292
Jul 20231,237
Jun 20231,050
May 20231,544
Apr 20231,344
Mar 20231,427
Feb 20231,019
Jan 2023800
Dec 20221,052
Nov 20221,059
Oct 2022700
Sept 2022725
Aug 2022730
May 2022750
Apr 2022750
Mar 2022569
Feb 2022650
Jan 2022700
Apr 2021964
Mar 20211,003
Feb 2021983
Jan 20211,000
Dec 2020735
Nov 2020824
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020576
Jul 2020587
Jun 2020589
Mar 2020600
Feb 2020700
Jan 2020567
Dec 2019540
Oct 2019390
Aug 2019467
Jul 2019410
Jun 2019517
May 2019567
Mar 2019560
Feb 2019557
Jan 2019560
Dec 2018542
Nov 2018550
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018540
Jul 2018550
Jun 2018500
May 2018700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2460-74-retail-kg.