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Oil (vegetable) in Rubaho

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,658–20,562

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,416–22,450

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,658 and 20,562 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,416 and 22,450 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Rubaho: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,658 and 20,562 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,416 and 22,450 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 35,850); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,266–18,785 16,282 13,615–20,652 18,000 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,911–18,959 16,042 13,192–22,232 16,937 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,658–20,562 16,235 12,209–25,597 17,668 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,968–21,052 16,259 13,961–25,258 19,497 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,416–22,450 16,260 13,356–35,850 18,264 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,000
Jun 202617,500
May 202615,688
Apr 202616,838
Mar 202616,325
Feb 202616,650
Jan 202617,773
Dec 202518,542
Nov 202517,389
Oct 202518,339
Sept 202518,781
Aug 202518,000
Jul 202518,706
Jun 202516,500
May 202516,769
Apr 202517,325
Mar 202515,353
Feb 202515,405
Jan 202515,118
Dec 202414,543
Nov 202415,147
Oct 202412,461
Sept 202413,844
Aug 202410,412
Jul 202410,029
Jun 202410,797
May 202410,736
Apr 20247,000
Mar 20248,221
Feb 20246,227
Jan 20249,500
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20237,531
Sept 20237,346
Aug 20237,462
Jul 20238,583
Jun 20239,500
May 20238,059
Apr 20237,438
Mar 20237,604
Feb 20237,857
Jan 202310,000
Dec 20227,318
Nov 20227,000
Oct 20227,000
Sept 20227,000
Aug 20227,350
Jun 20227,000
May 20227,000
Apr 20227,500
Mar 20226,769
Feb 20226,500
Jan 20225,800
Oct 20216,000
Apr 20216,000
Mar 20215,691
Feb 20215,083
Jan 20215,750
Dec 20205,825
Nov 20204,880
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,535
Jul 20204,702
Jun 20204,347
Mar 20203,700
Feb 20204,100
Jan 20203,667
Dec 20195,420
Nov 20194,375
Oct 20194,920
Sept 20195,020
Aug 20195,533
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,667
May 20195,000
Mar 20195,300
Feb 20194,543
Jan 20195,000
Dec 20184,900
Nov 20184,833
Oct 20184,800
Sept 20185,250
Aug 20185,300
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20184,750
May 20184,900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2460-96-retail-kg.