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Food basket in Rubaho

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,715–39,802

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,478–44,152

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,350 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,715 and 39,802 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,478 and 44,152 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Rubaho: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,350 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,715 and 39,802 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,478 and 44,152 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 67,185); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,996–33,843 30,015 24,921–38,974
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,547–35,805 30,229 24,681–45,316
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,715–39,802 30,770 24,591–49,737
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,411–41,025 31,342 23,625–52,661
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,478–44,152 31,895 24,228–67,185
Cost history (82 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202631,350
Jun 202628,029
May 202628,356
Apr 202629,355
Mar 202628,902
Feb 202628,859
Jan 202629,066
Dec 202529,947
Nov 202526,217
Oct 202528,992
Sept 202528,353
Aug 202532,904
Jul 202531,229
Jun 202529,993
May 202528,772
Apr 202527,385
Mar 202523,290
Feb 202523,057
Jan 202527,334
Dec 202430,409
Nov 202426,168
Oct 202425,827
Sept 202426,043
Aug 202423,808
Jul 202424,379
Jun 202421,795
May 202423,123
Apr 202428,570
Mar 202425,466
Feb 202428,134
Jan 202428,699
Nov 202325,200
Oct 202326,822
Sept 202322,958
Aug 202323,424
Jul 202321,642
Jun 202320,970
May 202327,295
Apr 202323,936
Mar 202324,690
Feb 202319,060
Jan 202316,860
Dec 202219,606
Nov 202219,923
Oct 202214,260
Sept 202214,452
Aug 202213,896
May 202214,400
Apr 202213,755
Mar 202210,880
Feb 202211,655
Jan 202212,615
Apr 202116,094
Mar 202116,474
Feb 202116,183
Jan 202116,245
Dec 202013,703
Nov 202014,512
Oct 202012,756
Sept 202011,267
Jul 202010,750
Jun 202010,309
Mar 202011,531
Feb 202012,086
Jan 202010,537
Dec 201910,359
Oct 20198,266
Aug 20199,363
Jul 20198,962
Jun 20199,346
May 201910,290
Mar 201910,422
Feb 201910,188
Jan 201910,337
Dec 201810,402
Nov 20189,976
Oct 20188,664
Sept 20188,952
Aug 201810,233
Jul 201810,398
Jun 20189,519
May 201812,101

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620