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Oil (palm) in Ruhehe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,706–11,397

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,714–13,906

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,706 and 11,397 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,714 and 13,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Ruhehe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,706 and 11,397 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,714 and 13,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,347); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,409–10,680 9,248 7,821–11,526 10,864 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,840–10,779 8,899 7,468–12,998 10,226 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,706–11,397 8,780 7,267–14,924 9,889 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,577–11,947 8,915 7,326–17,155 10,099 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,714–13,906 9,451 6,669–26,347 11,189 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,750
Jun 202610,167
May 20269,722
Apr 20269,500
Mar 20269,938
Feb 20269,000
Jan 202610,409
Dec 202510,250
Nov 202510,312
Oct 202511,255
Sept 202512,000
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,176
Jun 202511,552
May 202510,667
Apr 202511,083
Mar 202511,125
Feb 202510,341
Jan 20257,509
Dec 20246,038
Nov 20246,239
Oct 20245,669
Sept 20245,767
Aug 20246,000
Jul 20246,333
Jun 20246,292
May 20246,246
Apr 20245,683
Mar 20246,652
Feb 20245,935
Jan 20247,083
Dec 20236,583
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20236,250
Sept 20236,205
Aug 20236,500
Jul 20235,777
Jun 20236,145
May 20236,112
Apr 20234,981
Mar 20234,616
Feb 20234,654
Dec 20224,200
Nov 20224,131
Oct 20224,050
Sept 20224,767
Aug 20225,453
May 20224,927
Apr 20224,100
Mar 20223,800
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20223,550
Oct 20213,750
May 20212,933
Apr 20212,826
Mar 20212,600
Feb 20212,650
Jan 20212,471
Dec 20202,100
Nov 20202,100
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,441
Jul 20202,550
Jun 20202,575
Mar 20202,500
Feb 20202,475
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,425
Nov 20192,450
Oct 20192,375
Sept 20192,275
Aug 20192,725
Jul 20192,775
Jun 20192,750
May 20192,850
Mar 20192,325
Feb 20192,100
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20182,000
Oct 20182,000
Sept 20182,600
Aug 20182,775
Jul 20183,125
Jun 20183,060
May 20182,767
Apr 20182,567
Mar 20182,533
Feb 20182,250
Jan 20182,160

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2461-62-retail-kg.